Bitcoin, as a barometer of the crypto market, experiences price fluctuations driven by multiple factors: the technical halving cycle, the pace of institutional entry, and the evolution of regulatory policies constitute long-term support. However, in the short term, it is significantly affected by macroeconomic factors (interest rates, inflation), market sentiment, and derivatives leverage. Current ETF fund flows, on-chain whale activities, and changes in miner holdings indicate an intensification of the long-short battle. Stricter regulations may suppress speculation but strengthen compliance premiums, while the shift in U.S. dollar liquidity could become a key variable. In the medium to long term, the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' remains unchanged, but caution is warranted regarding liquidity crises triggered by black swan events. Investors should view cycles rationally and avoid high-leverage bets on short-term fluctuations.