Ethereum is consolidating during the day, and tonight there will be a decisive battle in the triangle zone!
Currently, the ETH price is fluctuating narrowly in the range of 1820-1830, with strong resistance capping at 1850, and a dynamic support line around 1805 forming a triangular convergence pattern. The MA5 and MA10 moving averages are flattening and converging, with trading volume shrinking to recent lows, indicating clear signs of manipulation by large players. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more intense the breakout may be.
Key news:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 2 AM. The market has already digested the expectation of “no rate cut,” but if Powell signals a hawkish stance (like suggesting a delay in rate cuts to July), ETH could plummet below 1750; conversely, if he unexpectedly turns dovish, it may trigger a rally towards the 1900 resistance zone.
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade is starting today, with EIP-7702 realizing smart account functionality, but on-chain data shows that before the upgrade, large holders net withdrew 32,000 ETH to exchanges, turning the good news into a potential selling pressure.
On-chain anomalies:
• OKX contracts have accumulated $120 million in short positions at 1850, but addresses holding over 1000 ETH are increasing their positions against the trend, indicating an intensifying battle between bulls and bears.
• Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $5.5 billion, while Ethereum ETF funds remained unchanged, showing a clear institutional bias towards the “digital gold” narrative.
In terms of strategy: Around 2:30 AM, just before and after Powell's speech, ETH volatility may soar to ±8%. Conservatives suggest holding USDT and waiting for a clearer direction before pursuing a second wave.
Tonight is destined to be bloody, and big players are likely to take advantage of the news to “double kill” both bulls and bears. Remember, friends: consolidating doesn’t lose money, but random trades will definitely lead to losses! It’s better to miss out than to get liquidated.
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