The current price of $BTC is hovering around 96600, rubbing up and down. The yellow and white dual lines are sticking together like 502 glue, and the Bollinger Bands are getting narrower, which clearly indicates a precursor to a trend change.
In the morning session, a spike to 97700 was smashed down by bears, indicating that the selling pressure above is thicker than that of mining machines, with the classic dog farmer trap set for retail investors. The trading volume is currently as timid as a newcomer to the circle; do not easily bet on a direction before there is a significant breakout, focus on the critical level of 96000—if this level breaks down with increased volume, the likely support at the 95500 moving average below won’t hold; conversely, if we stabilize above 96600 and break through the 97300 central pressure with volume, there will be a chance to test the previous high from the morning session.
There are two major risk points to watch out for today:
First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at midnight; although the probability of a rate cut in May is only 3.1%, the recent volatility of Bitcoin has been unusually low, be cautious of a spike washout after the announcement.
Second, Binance is conducting an ETH hard fork upgrade today; although BTC spot trading will not be affected, the on-chain gas fees may drain liquidity, and dog farmers love to ambush at such nodes. If the U.S. stock market pulls liquidity after opening, Bitcoin may face further pressure.
In terms of trading, remember three phrases: do not hold positions below 96000 when it breaks, and do not get overly eager above 97300 when it breaks. It is advisable to set orders at the critical points of 96000 and 97500, and if it breaks and retests without breaking, then take the trade in the prevailing direction, with stop losses of 200-300 points being sufficient; this position is more lethal than a scam project running away. For contract traders, keep your position within 20%, and for spot traders, hold your base positions and resist the urge to trade; the dog farmers are currently playing a psychological game, and only by enduring this narrow-range fluctuation will there be an opportunity for profits.
If you currently feel helpless and confused in trading, want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and first-hand cutting-edge information, click on my profile picture to follow me, and you won’t get lost in this bull market anymore!
