If the inflow speed of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. doubles, combined with the entry of sovereign funds and pensions, it could push the market cap of BTC to exceed $1 trillion. Under the global debt crisis and geopolitical conflicts, the demand for Bitcoin as a reserve asset in countries facing severe inflation will surge, forming the ultimate narrative of 'digital gold.' If the adoption rate of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches over 10%, it may unlock payment and DeFi scenarios, enhancing on-chain economic activity. The current total market cap of the crypto market is about $2.3 trillion, and reaching $5 trillion by 2025 requires an annual growth of 47%, far exceeding the growth rate of traditional assets and relying on extreme capital inflows. If the U.S. passes the 'Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act' or restricts self-custody wallets, it could block institutional entry channels. Historical data shows that the price increase of Bitcoin after halving has been decreasing successively (55x in 2013 → 20x in 2017 → 3x in 2021). In this cycle, calculating by 3x, the peak could be about $180,000.

CZ's prediction ($500,000 - $1 million) falls into the extremely optimistic scenario, requiring multiple historical-level favorable factors to overlap, with a probability of less than 5%. Based on cyclical laws and existing data, BTC is more likely to reach $120,000 - $150,000 in this cycle, corresponding to a total crypto market cap of $3 trillion - $3.5 trillion.