Although the probability of a rate cut in May is low, this does not mean there won't be one—currently, we are in a clear rate-cutting cycle, and the market has fully digested the 'no rate cut for now' message during the previous significant correction; therefore, even if there is no action this time, the possibility of a major market drop is limited.
More crucially, if there is no action in May, the expectations for a rate cut in June will quickly heat up. After all, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for five consecutive months, and continuing to wait and see only intensifies concerns about slowing economic growth unless they are willing to sacrifice the overall economy to combat inflation aggressively.
Therefore, tonight's focus is not on whether to lower interest rates immediately, but rather whether the Federal Reserve will release signals of a 'June pivot' in its wording.
Ethereum's largest upgrade, Pectra, is going live today. Will ETH rise or fall?
Looking back at history:
2022/9/15 Merger: Plunge
2023/4/12 Shanghai Upgrade: Surge
2024/3/13 Cancun Upgrade: Plunge
2025/5/7 Prague Upgrade: Tonight's trend draws attention
Currently, most KOLs in the market are bearish on Ethereum, worried that the Prague upgrade will turn 'positive news into negative'. However, if this judgment is only based on price, it is easy to overlook deeper logic.
Currently, Ethereum's price performance is indeed not as impressive as Bitcoin's, but compared to most altcoins, it remains stable, and viewed in terms of percentage changes rather than absolute prices, it is more valuable for reference.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's technical roadmap continues to advance, its ecological construction is constantly improving, and it is widely adopted in many countries and institutions worldwide. Its security and degree of decentralization remain core barriers that projects like Solana find hard to reach.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum's daily chart shows a bullish dominance, even though the price is still fluctuating around $2000, this phase of low attention and interest is often the right time to position oneself.
Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will also take center stage, with market focus on whether to start a rate-cutting cycle. Even if there is no action this time, the expectation of a pivot in June is already brewing. The combination of macroeconomic positivity and Ethereum's own upgrades may become the catalyst to initiate market activity.
When the market is generally lukewarm, contrarian thinking is especially important. The fundamentals of Ethereum are sound, and the price has yet to fully reflect its value; this may be a good opportunity for 'greed when no one is asking'.
Ethereum standing above $2000 is not a question of 'if', but rather 'when'.
That's all for this article! If you are confused in the crypto space, consider positioning and harvesting profits with me!
