Hello everyone, I am Crypto Mu Bai.
'Big White,' as referred to by fans, is hailed as 'the Buffett of uptrends, the Soros of downtrends.' As a leader in the crypto field, Big White primarily focuses on spot trading, supplemented by contract operations. With precise market judgment and a stable trading style, he has become an all-round trading expert.
The analyst known as 'Big White' is also a senior analyst specializing in spot, contracts, and on-chain strategies! With a win rate of over 96%!
Preface
After the severe market adjustment in the early stages, the cryptocurrency market in April seems to have a breath of fresh air. Although mainstream assets like Bitcoin are still seeking direction within a range, signs of recovery have emerged in the altcoin sector, and market sentiment has eased compared to before.
In this month (from April 1 to April 28, 2025), how did various tokens perform in the market rebound? Which tracks and ecosystems are more resilient?
One: Over 70% of tokens have risen, but the overall trend is mild.
April cryptocurrency market analysis: Structural opportunities under an overall rally.
Overall market performance: A mild rebound is the main tone. Through data analysis of 397 tokens, the market in April showed the following characteristics:
Gain distribution: The average gain is 13.11%, the median is 7.73%, showing that most tokens have a relatively mild gain.
Rise-fall ratio: 74.1% of tokens achieved gains, 25.7% fell, showing a clear overall rally but no frenzy.
Strength differentiation: Only 3% of tokens have gains over 100% (including 6 newly launched Binance projects), with gains of 50%-100% accounting for 3.3%, and 0%-50% gains accounting for 67.8%, reflecting that the market is still dominated by structural opportunities.
Track and market capitalization characteristics: Small-cap and new projects lead the gainers' list, showing three major trends:
Market capitalization effect: Among the top 20 gains, small-cap (under 100 million) and mid-cap (100 million-1 billion) tokens account for over 80%, indicating a capital preference for high-elasticity targets.
Track rotation:
DeFi track recovery (such as ALPACA, FIS)
AI and Meme concepts continue to retain heat (VIRTUAL, BABYUSDT)
Infrastructure and DEX projects are performing actively.
Ecosystem effect: Solana and BNB Chain ecosystem projects contribute several leading gainers.
New vs. old token differentiation: The market favors 'new blood' tokens, with a significant correlation between the year of launch and gains.
Key conclusion: The current market is in a 'mild recovery' phase, showing three major characteristics:
Funds prefer small-cap and newly listed targets during the overall market rally.
Projects born in bear markets show stronger vitality, while bubble tokens continue to be cleared in bull markets.
Sector rotation is evident; attention should be paid to the sustainability of themes like DeFi and AI.
Two: April cryptocurrency market track and ecosystem performance: Structural opportunities stand out.
1. Track analysis: Infrastructure and AI lead, DeFi is stable, public chains and RWA lag behind.
2. Ecosystem comparison: Sui, Base, and Solana lead, while Ethereum and BNB Chain perform flat.
3. Market capitalization performance: Mid to large-cap tokens are more stable, while small-cap still has high elasticity.
Mid to large-cap (over 100 million):
Average gains slightly higher than small-cap tokens, showing a greater preference for assets with certain consensus.
Tokens with market capitalizations between 100 million and 1 billion (116 tokens) and those over 1 billion (28 tokens) perform steadily.
Small-cap (under 100 million):
The highest proportion (242 tokens, 60%), but overall gains are slightly inferior.
Among the top 20 gains, 12 are small-cap tokens, indicating they still have high elasticity potential, but the volatility risk is greater.
Core conclusion: The market is still in a structural phase; selective tracks and targets are needed.
Capital preferences:
In the short term, there is a greater preference for hot tracks such as infrastructure, AI, and Meme.
The Sui, Base, and Solana ecosystems are relatively strong, but sample bias should be noted.
Market capitalization strategy:
Mid to large-cap tokens are suitable for stable allocation, while small-cap tokens can be gambled for high elasticity opportunities.
New coins (launched in 2025) perform better than old coins, as the market still favors 'new over old.'
Investment advice:
Currently, the market does not show a comprehensive 'altcoin season'; focus should be on high-growth tracks + strong ecosystems.
Beware of the severe volatility risk of low liquidity small-cap tokens.
Three: A graphic overview of the major Web3 events worth paying attention to in May.
In May, the Web3 industry welcomes several major events, with regulatory and judicial progress continuing to advance.
Ethereum Pectra mainnet upgrade, Kraken confirming the next round of FTX compensation distribution, and the Federal Reserve FOMC announcing interest rate decisions have become the focus of the month.
At the same time, major events like Consensus Toronto 2025 and Bitcoin Conference 2025 are coming up one after another.
In terms of projects, the unlocking of multiple tokens such as Sui, Jito, and Aptos may bring market volatility and is worth continuous attention.
