May 7 Bitcoin Market Overview
Industry Trends and Macroeconomic Impact
On May 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $425 million and $113 million, respectively, but the implied volatility in the cryptocurrency market continues to be sluggish, with options skew tending towards neutrality, and spot prices trapped in directional fog.
Meanwhile, gold surged nearly 3% in a single day, highlighting the market's concerns over a weakening dollar and geopolitical risks. Future trends present two possibilities:
First, an unexpected volatility could break the safe-haven correlation between Bitcoin and gold, shifting towards a connection with risk assets;
Second, trade factors may dominate, with strengthening Asia-Pacific currencies driving global capital reallocation, making the foreign exchange market a potential indicator of macro risks.
Institutional investors have regarded Bitcoin as a "hedging tool against U.S. recession," forecasting a target price of $250,000 by 2025, with a liquidity explosion expected in 2026-2027;
However, the market generally believes that reaching $250,000 in 2025 is quite challenging, with the $200,000 level potentially being realized at the peak of the bull market.
Additionally, Solana is viewed as the most undervalued Layer 1 public chain at present.
On-chain Data and Market Analysis
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin risk signal index has fallen below 20, indicating a low risk of short-term price correction.
The price action is showing a right-side oscillation upward, but the trading volume is insufficient, raising doubts about the trend when encountering key resistance levels. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin maintains high-level fluctuations, with market supply and demand relatively balanced, possibly entering the late stage of the bull market, necessitating caution against top formations.
Ethereum's trend is correlated with Bitcoin, with bottom structures gradually emerging, and it is expected to continue rising on the right side; the altcoin market shows poor activity, with low willingness for capital participation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach. The current fear and greed index is at 67, reflecting a relatively optimistic market sentiment.
