$BTC
1. Current Price and Market Dynamics
Price Range: As of today, BTC is quoted around $96,635, with an intraday fluctuation range of $94,281 to $96,529, up about 1.74% from yesterday.
Key Resistance Level: $97,000-$97,500 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level + options resistance zone) is the core area of the current bullish-bearish contest; failure to break through may trigger a pullback.
Support Level: Short-term support is concentrated in the $94,000-$95,000 range; if broken, it may further drop to the $93,000-$93,500 range.
2. Technical Indicator Signals
Overbought Risk: The 4-hour RSI reached 72, close to the overbought zone, indicating that short-term upward momentum may be exhausted.
Insufficient Volume: Recent upward movement has been accompanied by lower trading volume, raising doubts about sustainability; if faced with supply pressure (e.g., profit-taking sell-offs), prices may fluctuate sharply.
Medium to Long-Term Trend: The daily level remains in a high-level consolidation, with the MACD indicator showing recovery of bullish momentum, but attention needs to be paid to whether a daily death cross forms (some analysts believe it has appeared).
3. On-Chain and Market Sentiment
Institution Movements: Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, with $421 million flowing in on May 6, as institutions like BlackRock increase their holdings, providing price support.
Risk Signals: A net inflow of 12,000 BTC into exchanges in a single day, with derivative funding rates rising to 0.03% (bullish overheating), increasing short-term pullback risks.
Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index stands at 67 (neutral to greedy), with the options market betting $1.5 billion on the $100,000 mark, reflecting market expectations for a breakout.
4. External Influencing Factors
Federal Reserve Policy: Tonight, Federal Reserve officials Williams and Cook will speak; if they signal “long-term high interest rates,” it may suppress risk assets.
Options Expiration: Today, 52,000 BTC options are set to expire (maximum pain point at $94,000), which may exacerbate price fluctuations.
Geopolitical and Asset Correlation: Gold has recently risen by 3%; if BTC's safe-haven correlation with gold strengthens, it may alleviate short-term selling pressure.
