Pectra's upgrade is not just empty talk, but a substantial improvement, with lower Layer 2 costs, active developers, and institutional interest.
Looking at history: After the Shanghai upgrade in 2023, the price of ETH skyrocketed by nearly 20% in the short term. Although the price dropped after the 'Merge' upgrade in 2022, that was influenced by macroeconomic factors (Federal Reserve interest rate hikes) and market panic. Now the global economic environment is relatively stable, and market sentiment is warming (especially in the context of the Trump administration's crypto-friendly stance). This upgrade is likely to replicate the price surge seen after the Shanghai upgrade, or even exceed it.
Market sentiment and speculation: As the second largest player, Ethereum's attention in the market is undoubtedly significant, especially given the recent poor performance. Media coverage and community discussions before and after this upgrade will amplify market enthusiasm and attract retail and speculative capital. Additionally, major funds may take the opportunity to drive prices up, making it easy for ETH prices to rise in the short term.
It is common to see 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' situations before and after upgrades, and prices may pull back after rising. However, I firmly believe that the actual benefits of this upgrade (especially the reduction in Layer 2 costs and the explosion of the ecosystem) will strengthen ETH in the long run. After all, Ethereum's ecosystem (with total DeFi locked value exceeding $100 billion and leading NFT trading volume) is unmatched by other public chains.
