Since its launch, the digital currency has had major bullish impulses every 4 years, driven by the halving.
Bitcoin will continue with an upward trend over the next few years.
From 2028 onwards, a new major impulse for bitcoin could be expected.
Bitcoin could become the most valuable financial asset in the world.
Since its inception in 2009, bitcoin (BTC) has gone through multiple stages of skepticism, euphoria, and consolidation, maintaining a growing market.
With its evolution over time, more and more voices agree that the path of bitcoin towards a million dollars (USD) no longer seems like a utopia. In fact, it is possible to think that such a goal could be achieved before this decade ends.
Let's see why below:
1. A RECURRING CYCLE PATTERN: BITCOIN TENDS TO RISE AFTER EACH HALVING.
Bitcoin has historically shown an alternation of bearish and bullish cycles linked to the halving event, which occurs every four years and halves the issuance of new coins. This mechanism of programmed scarcity has served as a catalyst for price rebound trends.
In the three previous cycles, the price peaked between November and December of the year following the halving event. This was the case in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If this pattern repeats, the peak of the current cycle could come in late 2025, since the most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Therefore, if the same behavior repeats, the next bullish cycle could peak around November or December 2029, as the next halving is scheduled for early 2028. In this sense, this event could bring, as it has historically, a new wave of demand that boosts its price.
At the moment, the historical maximum price that BTC recorded was USD 109,300 a little over three months ago, in January 2025. And, although it fell back to USD 73,000 generating fears of an end of cycle, it later recovered to USD 98,000, breaking the downward trend forcefully, as seen below.
Price increases in previous cycles show exponential growth. After the 2012 halving, BTC went from USD 12 to over USD 1,100 in 2013. Following the one in 2016, it rose from USD 650 to nearly USD 20,000 in 2017. And after the 2020 halving, it jumped from USD 8,000 to USD 69,000 in 2021.
Although yields have decreased in percentage terms, nominal growth remains considerable, supporting the possibility of seeing bitcoin at higher levels in this cycle and over USD 1 million in the next.
"I suspect we will soon reach new all-time highs in bitcoin," said the fund manager at Capriole Investments, regarding the strong price recovery. "Unless we see a significant change (for example, a daily close below USD 91,000), it's hard to get a more bullish technical chart than this," she added.
2. THE DOLLAR LOSES PURCHASING POWER
Another reason to project bitcoin at seven-figure prices for the next cycle is that fiat money, including the dollar, which is the main reserve currency, is losing purchasing power. A million dollars in four or five years will not represent the same wealth as today.
In an environment of persistent inflation and unchecked monetary issuance, each unit of fiat currency is worth less. This causes the price measured in dollars of other assets to tend to rise, so it would not be surprising if the price of bitcoin continues to rise over time.
The perception of the "million dollars" must be adjusted to this new reality: it is not so much that bitcoin magically appreciates, but that national currencies are accelerating in devaluation. Below, the loss of purchasing power of the dollar over the last century can be seen graphically.
This also implies the possibility that more people will invest in bitcoin due to its distinct nature from fiat money that contributes to its rise. Having a fixed supply and not being able to be arbitrarily issued makes it a safe haven against the loss of value of traditional money, as long as it attracts demand.
3. MORE MONEY SUPPLY, MORE LIQUIDITY: A TAILWIND FOR BITCOIN.
Related to the above, the accelerated growth of the money supply globally becomes another key impetus for bitcoin. Since the 2008 financial crisis, and even more so after the 2020 pandemic, central banks have shown that printing money is their first reaction to any sign of economic stress.
The continuous printing of money allows more investor capital to enter equity markets in search of maintaining and maximizing its value. This means that bitcoin can continue to capture demand over time.
In this scenario, the CIO of the investment firm Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, said last week that the price of bitcoin could rise to USD 1 million by 2028, amid a widespread rebound in stocks and cryptocurrencies. As justification, he argues that the United States will have no choice but to print more money, as it has in previous rounds of quantitative easing, to keep the economy afloat.
"We may be on the cusp of a shift towards quantitative easing," has noted the investment company Pantera Capital, which highlights this key aspect for the appreciation of bitcoin.
It delves into the fact that, after a period of tightening, stimulus measures are being implemented, with lower interest rates, both in Europe and China, which is expected to also be resumed in the United States. With the decline in bond yields, the natural response of the U.S. central bank will be to provide liquidity support, says Pantera Capital.
"If we plot global liquidity against the price of bitcoin, it is quite clear that the major bullish movements in the price of bitcoin have occurred during times of increasing liquidity," emphasizes the company. This can be seen in the following chart that shows the price of the currency and M2, a key measure of money in circulation.
According to this context, Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, anticipates that the price of bitcoin will reach at least USD 740,000 by the 2028 halving, driven by adoption. Currently, 95% of global financial wealth has not yet entered the market, so he sees great potential for growth.
4. BIG PLAYERS ARE JUMPING ON BOARD: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT ON THE RISE.
In the early years of bitcoin, it was common to think that only small investors or tech enthusiasts were investing in this digital currency. That idea has become outdated with the entry of players of all types into the market, especially in this cycle.
With the launch last year of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, both traditional retail investors and companies have invested in the asset. Currently, these instruments accumulate over USD 16.5 billion.
Cathie Wood, the founder and CEO of the asset management company ARK Invest, stated a year ago that, although she previously anticipated bitcoin reaching USD 1 million by 2030, she expects that figure to be reached sooner. The reason is that the approval of the mentioned ETFs has facilitated access. "I believe that was an important milestone and has accelerated the timeline," said the executive.
In an update of its projections last month, Ark Invest forecasted BTC for 2030 at USD 1.2 million as a base case and USD 2.4 million in a more bullish scenario. In the worst-case scenario, it anticipates that it will be at least USD 500,000 by then, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
The growth of the market also means that different governments are currently studying whether to buy BTC as a strategic reserve. The inclusion of holdings in this asset in the U.S. national Treasury, coming from seizures of illegal cases, has intensified this scenario.
Therefore, the purchase of bitcoin by governments could unleash greater widespread demand for the asset, as well as push bitcoin to higher prices in the long term.
5. BITCOIN AS "DIGITAL GOLD": AN INCREASINGLY ACCEPTED NARRATIVE.
Finally, the growing acceptance of bitcoin as a digital store of value strengthens its long-term use case. Although it was initially promoted as an alternative payment system, over time the more powerful narrative has focused on its role as "digital gold" or "safe haven."
Like gold, bitcoin is scarce and is mined in a decentralized way. But in addition, BTC has various advantages, among which stand out that it is more easily divisible, portable, and verifiable; it can be transferred instantly anywhere in the world without intermediaries and has a known and limited total supply, eliminating uncertainty about its future issuance.
For Hong Fang, president of the cryptocurrency exchange OKX, bitcoin is a 100 times better solution than any other asset. "Whatever your culture, religious background, language you speak, we all have a fundamental need: we want a safe way to store our money and transfer our value over time and space, and we want to do it without the need for a 'trusted' intermediary. That is what bitcoin offers," she argued.
With these attributes, amid its growing adoption, more and more wealth managers, companies, and sovereign funds are beginning to consider bitcoin as a stable and strategic component for a diversified portfolio. This facilitates the possibility of bitcoin rising to over seven figures for the next cycle if this narrative gains power.
While the path to a million dollars per bitcoin is not guaranteed, more and more structural and financial factors point in that direction. The repetition of cycles, the erosion of fiat money value, monetary expansion, institutional adoption, and the validation of its narrative as digital gold create a favorable environment for this to happen.