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Review of the week
From April 28 to May 5 this week, the highest point of ice sugar orange was around $97,895, the lowest was close to $92,800, with a fluctuation range of about 5.37%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 92,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.23 million coins;
76000-89000 approximately 1.25 million coins;
90000-100000 approximately 1.63 million coins;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000-80000 is 80%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 95000-100000 in the short term is 50%.
Important news aspects
Economic news aspects
US tariff policies and their impact:
Morgan Stanley: US tariff uncertainties lead capital to shift towards non-US assets.
Bank of America strategist Shusuke Yamada: Due to Trump's tariffs, the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike expectation has been postponed from June to the end of 2025.
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick: The US Treasury yield curve premium is at a 12-year high, and investors may seek to allocate to non-US assets.
US Treasury Secretary's statement: Expect progress in US-China trade talks in the coming weeks, stating that Trump's 145% tariffs on China cannot be maintained long-term.
10x Research report mentions: Tariff-related uncertainties still exist.
US economic data and expectations:
US April unemployment rate: 4.2% (expected 4.2%, previous value 4.2%).
US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls: 177,000 (expected 130,000, previous value 228,000).
US April average hourly wage year-on-year: 3.8% (expected 3.9%, previous value 3.8%).
US first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% (expected growth of 0.2%).
US March core PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year.
US April ADP added 62,000 jobs (a significant decrease from March's 147,000).
Fed policies and market expectations:
Kevin Warsh, a popular candidate for Fed leadership: The Fed should accept strict scrutiny, the current predicament is self-inflicted, and a strategic reset is needed.
Fed meeting dates: May 7, June 18, July 30. Analysts believe there is a chance of interest rate cuts for three consecutive months.
Market view (2025-05-01): Federal funds futures show that the market expects the Fed to cut rates more than four times this year (based on weak data at the time). Weak economic data may force the Fed to turn dovish.
10x Research report mentions: The Fed still maintains a neutral stance.
Bank of Japan dynamics:
Affected by Trump's tariffs, the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike expectation has been postponed from June to the end of 2025 (Bank of America perspective).
Other macro viewpoints:
JPMorgan: The stablecoin market size is expected to grow to $500 billion to $750 billion in the coming years; if 70% is allocated to US Treasuries, it will become the third-largest buyer of US Treasuries.
News aspects of the crypto ecosystem
CoinGecko data: In the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, the crypto market evaporated $537 billion in market value.
Institutional and corporate adoption:
Wall Street dynamics:
Wall Street firms are quietly betting on Bitcoin price increases driven by Trump.
Tower Research Capital trading team has increased capital allocation to crypto trading ledgers and upgraded infrastructure.
Wall Street giants (managing $10 trillion in assets) are expected to start Bitcoin operations this year, allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to clients.
Robert Mitchnick (possibly from BlackRock): 'Capital inflows are returning in large volumes.'
Strategy (MicroStrategy) dynamics:
Last week, spent $1.42 billion to increase holdings of 15,355 BTC, currently holding 553,555 BTC.
Launched the '42/42 plan,' aiming to raise $84 billion to purchase Bitcoin within two years.
The company reported a loss of $4.23 billion in the first quarter, with revenue down 3.6%.
Twenty One Capital dynamics:
Last week announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC.
US spot BTC ETF: Last week saw a net inflow of $3 billion, a five-month high. The institutional proportion rose from 20% in September last year to 33%. On April 28, net inflow was $591 million.
BlackRock IBIT: On April 28, net inflow was $970.9 million, the second largest single-day inflow since the ETF's inception. Currently holding 573,869 BTC.
Market analysis and predictions:
Bernstein analyst: BTC price narrative fluctuates between correlation with gold and Nasdaq, with short-term correlations being misleading; corporate accumulation and ETF fund inflows are key.
QCP Capital analysis: Last week, BTC rose alongside gold, and this week rose in sync with the stock market, influenced by news from 21 Capital. This round has a healthier fundamental outlook.
Analyst James Van Straten: BTC has a 30-day correlation of 0.70 with gold and 0.53 with Nasdaq 100.
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick: Some safe-haven funds are shifting to BTC, driven by capital reallocating from US assets, with BTC likely to refresh historical highs in Q2.
10x Research report:
In the past month, Bitcoin has risen by 25% (driven by ETFs and institutions).
Signs of weakening upward momentum: Coinbase premium has fallen, and funding rates are weak.
Macro pressure is building, and the market is consolidating around $95,000, waiting for new catalysts.
CoinPanel analysis: Rate cuts will benefit Bitcoin through three mechanisms: weakening dollar, improving liquidity, and declining treasury yields.
Regulatory and policy dynamics:
Arizona, USA: Two bills (Arizona Strategic BTC Reserve Act) passed final voting in the House, awaiting the governor's signature. If signed, it may become the first state to require public funds to invest in BTC.
Other state dynamics: Iowa, Missouri, Texas, etc. are considering establishing BTC reserves.
SEC member Hester Peirce: The US crypto regulatory environment feels like playing 'the floor is lava' game; a clear compliance channel should be established soon.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart: The listing date for ProShares XRP ETF is undecided.
Apple policy update: Eased restrictions on cryptocurrency-related rules in the US App Store, allowing external payments and third-party market purchases of NFTs, but still with strict limitations (e.g., banning ICOs, task reward tokens, etc.).
The Trump administration promises to open up Bitcoin trading and crypto market access, accelerating legislation.
Ethereum (ETH) related:
Vitalik Buterin: The two main goals of the ETH Foundation are to enhance usage and increase resilience and decentralization.
Riot Platforms VP of Research Pierre Rochard: Questions whether ETH's goals help enhance value, suggesting the ETH Foundation should go public.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural change/Neutral state
Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the likelihood of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Risk ratio of spot sell orders
US spot ETF flow
Large net transfer volume in exchanges
Realized price of short-term holders
(Below is the non-liquid long-term whale)
Bitcoin is still rapidly transitioning from a liquid state to an illiquid state. The tightening effect on the supply side is intensifying, providing a solid fundamental outlook for the medium to long term.
(Below is the risk ratio of spot sell orders)
Although overall selling pressure seems controllable, it is necessary to be cautious because if the price falls below the STH cost line ($93.5k), this metric may deteriorate rapidly, as the STH group will face greater selling risk.
(Below is the US spot ETF flow)
New purchasing demand from ETF channels still exists and maintains a certain strength, although it is weaker than a few days ago, it still provides incremental buyer support to the market.
(Below is the large net transfer volume in exchanges)
Showing significant net outflows dominating the overall trend is outflows.
The strategic accumulation behavior of large entities (whales) is still ongoing, reducing immediate selling pressure in exchanges and enhancing long-term bullish expectations.
(Below is the realized price of short-term holders)
The current BTC price ($93.7k) is very close to the average STH cost ($93.5k), with the short-term speculator (STH) group at the breakeven point, which may become vulnerable.
This is the current market's most critical pressure point and source of uncertainty. If the price effectively breaks below $93.5k, a large number of recent entrants from STH will face losses, potentially triggering panic selling and stop-losses, forming a 'stampede' effect.
$93.5k has become an extremely important and sensitive support/resistance conversion line. It is no longer 'confidence after profit,' but rather 'the last defense line before loss.'
Comprehensive analysis:
Starting point - Macro environment and news foundation: Macro uncertainty, strong interest rate cut expectations, institutional adoption trends, regulatory positive variables, and short-term consolidation waiting for catalysts.
The drastic differentiation of on-chain signals and core contradictions are highlighted:
Strong long-term accumulation and supply tightening are still ongoing: Non-liquid long-term whales are growing rapidly (Figure 1), whales are continuously withdrawing large amounts (Figure 4), and ETFs maintain net inflows (Figure 3) - these three core positive signals remain solid, pointing to an extremely optimistic long-term supply outlook with demand support.
However, the 'life and death line' for short-term holders is pressing: The current price is closely tied to the STH cost line (Figure 5), making short-term market sentiment extremely fragile and sensitive. Any further decline may cause the STH group to shift from marginal profit/breakeven to loss rapidly, triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs.
The core characteristics of the current market state:
The market is at a critical point of fierce confrontation between 'long-term structural bullishness' and 'short-term significant downward risk (testing the STH cost line).'
The institutional adoption and positive expectations in the news are being tested by the STH cost line, which is a near 'cliff.' The overall risk ratio of spot sell orders (Figure 2) is low, but it may be the calm before the storm; once the STH defense line is breached, this metric could deteriorate rapidly.
Potential evolution of logic:
If the price can hold and rebound away from $93.5k: then STH pressure is temporarily lifted, and the market may continue to attempt upward support from whales and long-term illiquid whales. However, this 'alarm' will make market sentiment more cautious.
If the price effectively breaks below $93.5k: the selling pressure from STH will be triggered, potentially leading to a rapid price drop. At that time, the willingness of whales to absorb (Figure 4 whether the outflow will increase to absorb selling) and whether the 'slow variables' of long-term whales can withstand the 'fast variable' impact in the short term will be tested. The inflow of ETFs (Figure 3) will also be crucial in offsetting this selling pressure.
Any negative news on a macro level (such as a significant weakening of interest rate cut expectations) could become the last straw that breaks the psychological defense line of STH.
Conversely, any unexpected positive news (such as announcements of large institutional purchases) may help the price maintain key support.
Future outlook:
Medium to short term: STH cost line defense battle, volatility sharply amplified
$93.5k will be the core battlefield for fierce contention between bulls and bears in the short term. Continuous accumulation by whales and supply locking of long-term illiquid whales provide underlying support, but the vulnerability of the STH group poses a significant potential selling risk. The flow of ETFs will play a key balancing role.
Outlook: The market will enter a phase of high volatility and extreme uncertainty in direction. Price testing around $93.5k is likely to be a high-probability event.
If it holds and rebounds: The market will gain a breather, but upper pressure still exists, limiting the rebound height.
If it breaks: The market may face a quick and deep correction to test lower support areas (possibly needing to look at other on-chain indicators such as the percentage of short-term speculator losses).
Overall, in the short term, risks are rising, cautious observation is advised, closely monitoring the gains and losses around $93.5k and the on-chain actions of various parties in response to these changes.
Medium to long term: Testing the resilience of long-term accumulation strength
If short-term STH selling pressure is relieved (whether through price declines or sideways fluctuations), and the core long-term accumulation trend (whale withdrawals, growth of long-term non-liquid whales) can be sustained, then the market still has a chance to rebuild strength at lower positions or after longer periods of consolidation.
Outlook: The uncertainty of medium to long-term prospects has also significantly increased.
Optimistic scenario (needs to overcome short-term risks): If the market successfully digests STH selling pressure, and the macro environment eventually turns favorable (e.g., interest rate cuts materialize), then with a strong supply tightening fundamental outlook, it can regain upward momentum. However, this will take time, and the bottom may be more complicated than previously expected.
Pessimistic scenario: If STH selling triggers a chain reaction, and whale absorption is insufficient or the macro environment continues to be unfavorable, the market may enter a long adjustment period (currently, this probability is not very high).
At this current node, the optimistic expectations for the medium to long term are facing severe challenges. Although the long-term illiquid whales and whales' long-term accumulation are positive, it is essential to successfully navigate the short-term crisis brought by the STH cost line first.
Whether to exchange space for time or use time for space, the market path has become more convoluted.
Mid-term exploration
Liquidity supply volume
Network sentiment positivity
Short-term supply percentage composite model
Comprehensive whale score
Comprehensive USDC purchasing power score
(Below is the liquidity supply volume)
From the perspective of liquidity supply volume increase and decrease, the liquidity in the market is currently experiencing stagnation.
This may exacerbate the closed nature of stock games while also indicating that the activity in the market will shrink.
Based on the current situation, the market may enter a brief phase of confusion.
(Below is the network sentiment positivity)
At the same time, the growth rate of network sentiment is also slowing down.
The short-term emotional heat in the market may temporarily converge.
Based on this situation, extrapolation:
As sentiment gradually declines, if the overall data trend leans towards sentiment retreat, the current phase may come to an end.
If sentiment is just a temporary pause, and selling pressure is low, sentiment may gradually recover.
(Below is the short-term supply percentage composite model)
Blue line: Supply of accumulation groups
Orange line: Supply of short-term participants
The supply of accumulation groups has recently seen a sharp decline, which may be the reason for the rapid correction in recent days.
Due to the wide coverage of accumulation groups, mainly counting addresses with relatively low activity and holding coins, they can have a certain phase impact on the price in the market.
However, the main issue currently is that liquidity and sentiment in the market also face repair challenges.
(Below is the comprehensive whale score model)
Whale ratings remain high, currently rated as 'very high.' This may indicate that large buyers in the market maintain an optimistic attitude.
(Below is the comprehensive USDC purchasing power score)
The purchasing power of the USDC group has dropped to a 'high' rating. Although it still belongs to a high rating, this data primarily measures changes.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intent transaction ratio
Derivatives transaction volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Ice sugar orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk coefficient is in a neutral area, with reduced derivatives risk.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
As mentioned last week, the market has indeed further short-squeezed. The current market has seen a drop, with the risk coefficient entering a neutral zone, and there are no special expectations this week solely from derivatives.
(Below is the options intent transaction ratio)
The ratio and volume of put options have decreased, with the current put options ratio at a medium-high level.
(Below is the derivatives transaction volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.
(Below is the options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has only seen low amplitude fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral and cautious.
(Below is the profit and loss transfer volume)
In the past two weeks, as BTC prices rose, market sentiment (blue line) has been diverging and declining, indicating that current market purchasing power and overall atmosphere remain neutral and cautious. If there are no substantial stimuli and positives in the future, the probability of fluctuations and corrections will gradually increase.
(Below is the new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a mid-low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, BTC continues to see substantial outflows, while ETH has only a small outflow.
(Below is the net position of the ice sugar orange exchange)
Currently, a large amount of BTC is flowing out.
(Below is the net position of the E exchange)
Superficially, the net position of ETH in exchanges continues to flow out, but in reality, observing the blue line, the net position balance of ETH in exchanges is almost the same as during the market peak in December. In the short term, the selling pressure of ETH in the market will still continue.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
There is a small amount of high-weight selling pressure, but it has currently eased.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are basically unchanged from last week.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has not continued to rise, remaining roughly the same as last week.
(Below is the USDT exchange net position)
Overall stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
Off-chain trading data rating: This week's data site malfunction, no off-chain trading data available.
Summary of the week:
Summary of the news:
The current market is at a complex intersection where the macroeconomic direction is unclear, facing short-term adjustment pressure, but the long-term structural bull market foundation for crypto assets remains solid.
Starting point: Macro fog and policy waiting.
Global markets, especially those dominated by US economic data and Fed policies, are shrouded in a heavy atmosphere of caution. The mixed quality of US economic data (Q1 GDP contraction vs. strong April non-farm data) makes the Fed's policy path difficult to discern, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have become cautious after repeated back and forth.
Tariffs and other macro uncertainty factors have also exacerbated short-term market volatility. This is the current macro backdrop that suppresses risk appetite and leads the market to 'wait for catalysts.'
The 'internal driving force' of crypto assets:
Institutional wave. In contrast to the uncertainty at the macro level, crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) are undergoing a profound structural transformation - the acceleration of the institutional process.
From the successful launch and continuous capital inflow of spot ETFs, to strategic large-scale allocations by companies like MicroStrategy, and the top financial institutions on Wall Street preparing to fully embrace Bitcoin operations, all mark that crypto assets are being integrated into the mainstream asset allocation landscape.
This is the core driving force supporting the long-term value of the crypto market and is the cornerstone of its resilience amidst macro disturbances.
The 'short-term reality' of the market: Upward momentum is slowing and consolidating. After experiencing a significant rise driven by positive news such as ETFs, it is logical that the crypto market (such as Bitcoin around $94,000) shows signs of weakening momentum and consolidation in the short term.
On the one hand, there is a demand for early profit-taking;
On the other hand, the unclear macro environment makes new funds more cautious. 10x Research points out the characteristics of this 'adjustment period,' where the market digests previous gains and builds strength for the next breakthrough.
Looking for 'breakthrough points': Catalysts and future variables.
In the current situation where macro pressure and internal consolidation coexist, the market urgently needs new catalysts. These catalysts may come from:
On a macro level: A clear shift in Federal Reserve policy (such as confirming the interest rate cut path), significant improvement in inflation data, or substantial easing of geopolitical or trade relations (such as the US-China tariff issue).
Within the crypto industry: Announcements of entry by more heavyweight institutions, breakthrough progress in key technologies or applications, and crucially - clarification of the regulatory environment.
Emerging political factors: Especially with the upcoming mid-term elections in the US, candidates (such as Trump) stance on cryptocurrency is becoming an important new variable affecting market expectations and capital flow.
The parallel development of Ethereum and stablecoins:
While Bitcoin attracts major attention, Ethereum's focus on improving usage and decentralization, along with the expected expansion of the stablecoin market size, together form two other important clues for the diversification and deep development of the crypto ecosystem, providing support for the long-term healthy development of the entire industry.
Medium to short-term focus:
The continuous capital flow towards ETFs (even if marginally weakened) remains an important observation indicator.
Macro data.
Catalyst fermentation: The response to any potential catalysts will be more sensitive, especially regarding new news about regulatory policies and major institutions entering the market.
Medium-term focus:
The Fed's path to interest rate cuts (if it occurs) will become clearer, providing clearer macro guidance for risk assets.
Institutional effects: After Wall Street giants officially launch Bitcoin-related products and services, the actual scale of capital inflow and market impact will gradually manifest.
The progress of US state initiatives and overall policy setting.
Post-halving effects: Historically, the supply shock effect of Bitcoin halving takes more than a year to gradually manifest.
Overall:
The market is struggling to digest short-term pressures while actively seeking key catalysts that can lead the next phase of the market, where the direction of regulatory policy and the influence of political factors are increasingly highlighted.
On-chain long-term insights:
The positive fundamentals of long-term accumulation and supply tightening (long-term illiquid whales, whale withdrawals) still exist;
However, in the short term, the market faces significant downward risks and high uncertainty due to the vulnerability of the STH group.
$93.5k STH cost line has become the 'life and death line' determining the market direction in the short term.
In the coming weeks, the market will engage in fierce contention around this critical point, and volatility is expected to sharply increase, requiring high vigilance against short-term risks.
Market tone:
Long-term optimism, short-term shrouded in fog.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Liquidity stagnation, intensified stock games, and temporary confusion in the market.
Sentiment growth rate slows down, and the market is stuck.
Accumulation supply drops sharply, which may be causing the correction.
Whale ratings are extremely high, and large buyers remain optimistic.
USDC purchasing power has decreased, still rated high, but the trend is weakening.
Market tone:
Slowing down, fluctuating
Liquidity is slowing, sentiment is cooling, whales are supporting the market, but purchasing momentum is waning.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk factors are in a neutral area, with moderate risk.
New active addresses are at a mid-level, indicating market activity.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral and cautious.
Exchange net positions show that BTC continues to see substantial outflows, while ETH has only a small outflow.
Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are basically unchanged from last week.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000-80000 is 80%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 95000-100000 in the short term is 50%.
Market tone:
Market sentiment is generally neutral and cautious, after a slight short squeeze over the past two weeks, and after the price broke through the short-term holder cost line (93K), the short-term market may experience some selling of profits or above loss chips. Additionally, this week is significantly influenced by short-term news; if there are no special positive news or substantial stimuli, the probability of a volatile or corrective move is high. The short-term holder cost line remains an important support/resistance level.
Risk warning:
The above are all discussions and explorations of the market, without directional opinions on investment; please treat them cautiously and prevent black swan risks in the market.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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