FOMC this week isn’t about rates - it’s about control.
Trump & Powell have been going against each other publicly… Trump really wants JP to cut rates asap while Powell wants to showcase himself being independent & going with the plan.
Things will get more interesting as 90 days tariff pause period comes closer.
What am I seeing in FOMC tomorrow?
→ 90%+ chance interest rates remain unchanged, but the real tension is between Powell and Trump
→ Trump’s demanding rate cuts, an end to QT, and threatening tariffs - cornering the Fed into a lose-lose
→ Powell can’t look weak, but he also can’t ignore sticky inflation and rising recession risk
→ Tariffs 2.0 could reignite inflation as the 90 days period comes closer - June may not be as dovish as people think
→ Markets want certainty. They’ll likely get confusion in tomorrow’s meeting.
→ BTC and risk assets are moving more on narrative expectations than actual Fed action
Anyways, markets are still uncertain, however Bitcoin strength has been astonishing so far.
Accumulate $BTC while you can & avoid leverage trading in uncertain markets!