According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is as high as 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.7%; by June, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 69.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 29.4%. This expectation mainly stems from the U.S. non-farm payroll data in April exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and core PCE inflation still being above the 2% target. In addition, the Federal Reserve is concerned that the Trump administration's tariff policy may drive up inflation, further delaying the timing of rate cuts.

In the context of postponed rate cut expectations and a sustained high interest rate environment, it is recommended to increase the proportion of stablecoins in crypto assets to 20%-30% to cope with market volatility and capture short-term arbitrage opportunities. The proportion of large-cap, highly liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be raised to 50%-60%, as their anti-inflation properties and institutional holdings provide a certain defensive stance. It is advisable to postpone allocating high-volatility small-cap tokens, reduce DeFi leverage operations, and avoid the risk of a liquidity crunch leading to a market sell-off.