## 1. Fed’s Rate Decision & Probabilities

The CME FedWatch Tool pegs a 96% probability of no rate change at this meeting. Polymarket echoes the sentiment with a 98% chance of a hold, leaving only a sliver (2%) for an unexpected cut. Market odds flip sharply into June, pricing in roughly a 25–30% chance of a cut, making forward guidance crucial.

## 2. Crypto Reaction Ahead of Powell

Bitcoin consolidated around $94K, dipping just 0.3%, as bulls await any dovish hints. ADA & XRP slid –3.96% and –3.78% respectively, reflecting risk-off positioning pre-FOMC. DeFi tokens (AAVE, CRV) saw rotation inflows, as traders hunt fundamentals amid macro uncertainty. On-chain volumes for BTC/USDT on Binance climbed 12%, signaling smart-money positioning into the meeting.

## 3. Key Price Levels to Watch

$99,900–$100,000 is the critical “psych zone” where long-term holders (LTHs) historically sell at 350% unrealized gains. $91,500–$92,000 serves as the immediate downside floor—if broken, BTC could slump back to $88K fast. Watch for 4-hour closes above $100K on heavy volume to confirm a bullish breakout.

## 4. Trading Playbook 🎯

Scalp: Short BTC near $99.9K–$100.1K, TP $98K, SL $100.5K. 📉 Swing: Long on 4H close >$100K, entry $100.2K–$100.5K, TP1 $105K, TP2 $110K, SL $99K. 📈 Long-Term: Accumulate dips $92K–$95K, SL $90K, targets $120K & $150K post-Fed fireworks. 🚀

## 5. Why This Matters

Fed’s forward guidance can sway risk appetite instantly—last December’s hawkish pivot by Powell triggered a “bloodbath.” Even a hold paired with dovish language fuels crypto as “digital gold” in a high-rate world. ETF inflows & state reserve plans are compounding demand—this meeting is a litmus test for macro-crypto synergy.

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