This week, significant volatility is expected. On one hand, BTC is facing slight pullbacks against the resistance of $98,000 to $100,000. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is at 2 AM on May 8, and the market expects the rate to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. This could lead BTC to test the daily support advantage at $92,000, which is a key support level worth paying attention to.
If this daily pullback to $92,000 can hold at closing, then the bullish advantage on the daily chart will not be broken, and there will still be a chance for a second attempt at resistance.
If it can't hold, then it's $88,000.
Additionally, I want to complain about Ethereum. Ethereum's mainnet upgrade is officially at 6 PM tomorrow, but does this candlestick look like it’s preparing for an upgrade? I’m exhausted from complaining.
Also, where did the altcoin craze go?
The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity is not keeping up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains dispersed, leading to dilution of potential returns.
Capital is dispersed: More tokens are competing for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.
Venture capital is cautious: Investment in crypto projects has dropped from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, resulting in a severe shortage of development funds for altcoins.
Retail investors are absent: Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to sustain a rise.
Will there still be an altcoin season?
From a fundamental analysis perspective, Bitcoin's market share reached higher peaks in 2019 and 2021 (approximately 73% and 74%, respectively), and these peaks often accompanied significant rises in the altcoin market. However, current discussions about whether an altcoin season is approaching show clear and diverse viewpoints.
Historically, once Bitcoin's market share faces pressure at key resistance levels (such as 65% or 71%) and starts to decline, capital tends to shift towards altcoins, recreating past altcoin seasons.
However, according to recent data, the proportion of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the past 90 days is low (only about 17%), which does not show strong signs of capital rotation. Some market voices also believe that Bitcoin's market share may need to break through 70% or even higher to truly usher in a sustained and comprehensive altcoin market.
But the market currently does not show any potential new narratives.
The current market liquidity is too poor. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed meeting on the 8th, the futures market seems to be preparing to buy and hold, reminiscent of the long-lost 55-45 split!
Just wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting early Thursday.
Remember, in this market, it is better to miss out than to act recklessly; preserving capital is the most important. It is not too late to take action once the situation becomes clear.