The market logic is quietly changing, are we on the brink of a major market shift?

Recently, the market trends have become increasingly bizarre. The US stock market has surged, and one would expect the dollar to strengthen too, but it hasn't moved, and US Treasury bonds continue to decline. This phenomenon of 'going against the trend' clearly suggests a misalignment of logic. When market confidence normally recovers, the dollar should strengthen, but now it is doing the opposite. Asian currencies have collectively surged in recent days; this is not a coincidence, but rather capital is accelerating its exit from the US to other markets. It’s not a wait-and-see approach; it’s a retreat.

Previously, I mentioned 'Dollar Tide 2.0'—large funds had already made their layouts during the interest rate hike cycle. Many people missed out on this round of Bitcoin’s rise because their thinking was too habitual: they believed that interest rate hikes should cause declines and only rate cuts would lead to increases. The market evolves in cycles, but the paths are often different; replicating past experiences often leads to losses.

Now, the interlinked relationship between the dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds has completely broken down. The dollar no longer moves in sync with US stocks; instead, it is retail investors propping up the market while institutions are gradually reducing their positions. Goldman Sachs' research report clearly points out that this surge in US stocks is driven by retail investors 'buying more as prices rise,' while institutions are slowly exiting.

Many people say that funds are all going into gold for safety, but gold is also showing clear signs of peaking, and the shorts have been largely cleaned out. Traditional safe-haven assets like the yen and euro are also weak, and capital is starting to speculate on some non-mainstream currencies, akin to the way 'altcoins' are traded in the crypto space—indicating that mainstream assets are no longer safe.

What is the essence? The market is seeking an escape route outside the dollar system, even if it means taking on higher risks. Buffett's statement about not selling Japanese trading companies for the next 30 years is essentially a judgment on the long-term demand for safe havens.

What does this have to do with cryptocurrencies? If the credibility of the dollar continues to collapse, the next wave of capital searching for an exit is likely to flow towards crypto assets. Currently, lowly positioned altcoins and commodities are potential points of explosion.