Currently, the macro narrative is about the game of recession and interest rate cuts, but a recession must be triggered by the precondition of interest rate cuts being bundled together. This is also the reason for the current downward trend and bearish logic. However, shorting is quite difficult because it is hard to bet on whether the market will reach previous highs before the real panic of recession begins.

From a micro short-term perspective, last Friday's 97800 was actually only 300 points higher than the 97500 I mentioned, but there weren't many who dared to short at that time, because the short-term gradual 1000-2000 point rise broke many people's expectation that 95 was the top, disrupted trading plans, and caused uncertainty and panic.

Although we are currently in a downward range, as I judged yesterday around 92 for cross support, 92 could be a high-probability opportunity to go long. However, when it actually reaches that position, bulls may hesitate about whether to wait until 88 to see, while bears might think at least to rebound back to 95 before making a decision. Opportunities are lost in this indecision. Of course, you can choose to trade only the large range with certainty, but you must be able to endure loneliness to hold on to prosperity.