1. Core Resistance Level: The pivotal role of 94800 as a bull-bear dividing line

1. Technical Meaning

94800 coincides with the upper Bollinger Band and the 50-period moving average on the hourly chart, and is key for assessing the strength of short-term rebounds. If the price cannot stabilize above this level, the rebound may only be a continuation of the downward trend, and caution should be taken regarding continued downward pressure.

Confirmation Signal: If the price rebounds to this point and volume shrinks or a long upper shadow appears, it is considered effective pressure.

2. Trend Projection

- If it encounters resistance and falls back: If it is pressured below 94800, the market may test support again, and the strategy should primarily be to watch or short in the short term.

- Effective Breakout: If it maintains above 94800 with increased volume (confirmed by two consecutive hourly closing prices), it opens up upward space, and bulls are likely to attack higher targets.

2. Step-by-step Analysis of Lower Support Levels

1. First Support: 93445

This position is a combination of recent low point support and hourly MACD zero-axis support, providing dual technical support levels. If the price retreats and stabilizes here (such as a bullish candlestick rebound or bottom divergence), one can consider lightly entering for a rebound with a target of 94800 and a stop loss set at 93400.

2. Deep Adjustment Support: 92720-90455

If 93445 is broken, the market enters a mid-term adjustment:

- 92720: 4-hour 200-period moving average support, mid-term reference point for bulls and bears;

- 91620: Lower edge of previous consolidation range, dense support area;

- 90455: Daily Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, strong support area.

Risk Warning: If it falls below 90455, be alert for further declines, avoid blindly bottom-fishing.

3. Outlook for Upward Targets and Resistance Levels

Aggressive path after stabilizing above 94800:

- 95666: Recent consolidation midpoint upper edge, dense area for trapped positions;

- 96450: Daily Bollinger Band middle line, needs a volume breakout;

- 97300: Previous high position, key psychological level for bulls and bears.

Operational Strategy: After a breakout, one can rely on 94800 for defense to buy on dips, and take profits in batches; if encountering resistance (such as top candlestick signals), one can reduce positions or short.

4. Trading Discipline and Risk Control

1. Position Management: Single position ≤ 5%, avoid heavy betting on a single direction.

2. Stop Loss Settings: Long stop loss at 94500, short stop loss at 95000, strictly enforced.

Summary: Focus on whether 94800 is gained or lost at night; if it stabilizes, it leans bullish; if it is resisted, it leans bearish. Operations should flexibly adjust based on real-time volume and price signals, avoiding chasing highs and cutting lows, with risk control as a priority.$BTC #比特币走势