Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a critical "decision point," trading within a tight range as significant profit-taking activity prevents a decisive break above key resistance levels. The cryptocurrency has failed to sustain a move above $98,000, with daily highs largely contained between $93,000 and $97,900 since late April, and notably unable to close above $97,440.
This period of choppy price action is attributed to elevated selling pressure from investors locking in gains. According to Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿, the recent rally pushed profit-taking volume "above the statistical levels." The Realized Profit/Loss ratio highlights this trend, showing that for every dollar of loss realized, over nine dollars were realized in profit. This indicates significant selling by those who bought at lower prices, creating a ceiling for further upward movement despite the price holding above $93,000, a situation deemed "very surprising" and "risky" by CryptoVizArt.₿.
The high percentage of Bitcoin's supply currently in profit, standing at 86%, reinforces this dynamic. While a high supply in profit often signals a bullish market phase, historical data suggests that exceeding the 80-90% range can trigger increased profit-taking, particularly by short-term holders, potentially leading to price corrections.
Crypto analyst Checkmate underscores the significance of the current market position, stating that Bitcoin is at a key "decision point." He suggests that a single large bullish or bearish candle could dictate the market's next move, either confirming a lower high or signaling a continuation of the bull trend.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory and target the psychological $100,000 level and beyond, it must first achieve a daily close above $95,000. The price briefly dipped below this level on May 4 due to profit-taking following the move towards $97,000. Subsequently, flipping the $98,000 resistance level into support is crucial for further gains.
Potential catalysts for a bullish breakout include continued strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw substantial net inflows of $1.8 billion in the past week. The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision could also inject volatility and potentially provide market direction.
On the downside, bears are actively defending the $98,000 resistance, aiming to push the price below $92,000. As observed in the provided chart, the immediate key support below the recent trading range lows is situated at $90,000. This level is particularly significant as it represents the convergence point of the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), often acting as a strong support confluence.
Should the price fall below $90,000, the next area of interest for bears lies between $85,000 and $75,000. A drop to $75,000 would effectively erase all the gains accumulated since the 90-day tariff pause. The chart visually confirms the price trading between the 50-day SMA (yellow line) and above the upward-trending 100-day (purple line) and 200-day (brown line) SMAs, with these longer-term averages converging near the $90,000 mark, highlighting its importance as a potential support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the chart hovers around the neutral 50 level, reflecting the current indecision in the market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a precarious point. The significant profit-taking is a notable headwind, but underlying demand and potential macroeconomic events could provide upward momentum. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the key levels of $95,000, $98,000, and the critical support around $90,000, as the market awaits a decisive move out of its current range.
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