1. The price of BTC has fallen from 97500 to 95000, during which there was no significant accumulation of short liquidity above the price level. This indicates that the decline in price was not caused by futures shorts, but rather due to continuous supply in the spot market, resulting in a persistent decrease in the spot premium index during this process.

2. There has been no significant increase in long liquidity nearby...

But let's not forget the large amount of long liquidity mentioned in the quote that appeared when the price broke through 95500 last week. Strangely, the liquidation position of this batch of long liquidity appeared at 76000...

Less than 24 hours after this batch of long liquidity appeared, the price of BTC stagnated below 98000, especially when it clearly could have continued to liquidate upwards, but inexplicably stopped...

My guess is that this newly added long liquidity was intended to capture the liquidation market above 98000, but unfortunately, the amount of funds was quite large, which caused the funds that originally pushed the price up to be somewhat reluctant to lift it...

The key point is that the leverage of this batch of funds is relatively low, only 5x, and it cannot be fully liquidated in the short term...

So the price has shown a stagnant state, to put it simply, it’s like a big fat guy suddenly jumped on the car, the driver is a bit unhappy but doesn't want to kick him out, so he decides to find some bumpy road to shake things up!

This is why we have the current volatile market;

3. The short-term long positions opened around 94500~95000 have already been liquidated, and below that is a clear liquidity gap. Therefore, if the price wants to continue to pull back to 93000, it needs some rebound and volatility to allow the longs to fill this liquidity gap.

So the focus during Monday daytime is whether this gap can be filled. If the longs successfully take the bait, then the price test of 92800 from Monday to Tuesday will be very easy!

As speculated in the quote, the reason the price did not continue to liquidate when it approached 98000 is likely due to a lack of short liquidity, with a large number of shorts fleeing on the way up, while at the same time, there are large low-leverage longs, causing the upward momentum of the price to significantly slow down.

If the shorts still do not dare to open positions next, while the longs are confidently trying to bottom-fish, then this three-week long rebound may very well come to a complete end. In the next week or two, we may face a pullback to 83000 or an extreme pullback to 76000 (targeting that batch of 5x long positions!).

In short, the reflexivity of the futures market is still dominating price behavior. The more people are bullish above 100k, the harder it is to reach 100k. The more people are bearish, the harder it is for the price to pull back. This is a prisoner’s dilemma on the emotional front, and there is not much we can quantify at this moment...

Therefore, I can only look for a short-term pullback followed by volatility, rather than a complete reversal into a bearish trend... after all, it’s still too early!

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