Is it a rebound or a reversal? $BTC

It is still a rebound. Rising from 73,000 to 97,000 has not broken the previous high of 109,000, so it does not count as a reversal. A reversal needs a story and funds to support it. Without sufficient liquidity, let alone altcoins, even small-cap stocks in the US must oscillate at the bottom.

Nowadays, funds are concentrated in BTC and leading tech stocks, with little movement in other sectors. Without sector rotation, it is difficult for the market to experience a comprehensive reversal.

Previously, when BTC rose from 10,000 to 30,000, 70,000, and 100,000, there were clear logics behind it, such as the approval of the BTC ETF and the policy expectations brought by Trump's presidency. But since Trump took office, there have been no new stories in this market, leading to oscillation at high levels.

A true reversal must wait for a new story to emerge, such as favorable new policies or market hotspots, followed by capital inflow and a breakthrough in coin prices to confirm the reversal. Therefore, we should first see if we can return to the 100,000 high point before last year's unfavorable tariff policy.

If we can, it indicates that capital and confidence are okay, and we can be optimistic. But if even this is difficult, it shows that everyone lacks confidence, so let's wash it and talk again.

In short, the remaining narrative this year is about interest rate cuts.

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