The Trump administration maintains an 'open' attitude towards negotiating for lower tariffs, and has revealed that nearly 70 countries, including Japan and South Korea, have contacted the White House regarding tariff issues, suggesting that U.S. stocks may soon reach friendly negotiations with some countries.
Starting April 9, U.S. time, an additional 84% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods from China. Coupled with previous tariffs, the total tariff rate on almost all Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will skyrocket to an astonishing 104%. This news hit the market like a shock wave, causing the rebound that had occurred due to negotiation expectations to vanish instantly, spreading panic and leading to a significant drop in the stock market at the close. The market generally believes that such a high tariff is almost equivalent to a trade fortress, and the U.S.-China trade standoff has reached an unprecedented level of intensity.
In response to the U.S. side's extreme pressure, China also demonstrated a tough stance today. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized at a regular press conference that 'the Chinese do not fear trouble, nor do they provoke it. Pressure, threats, and extortion are not the correct ways to deal with China. China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. If the U.S. disregards the interests of both countries and the international community, insisting on a tariff war and trade war, China will accompany them to the end.'
The escalation of the trade war has not only led to severe fluctuations in traditional financial markets. Among the 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., 7 funds have experienced withdrawals, totaling 326 million USD. This marks the fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Moreover, this is the largest single-day net outflow since March 11, reflecting the market's heightened sensitivity to overall economic risks. As of the writing time, Bitcoin is quoted at 77750 USD, having dropped about 0.87% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
The current price is between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, with the middle band around 80000, the upper band near 87000, and the lower band around 75000. The Bollinger Bands are showing a contraction trend, indicating that the market may soon choose a direction, potentially breaking out or further oscillating. The DIF line has crossed above the DEA line to form a golden cross, while the MACD histogram has turned from green to red, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. However, the DIF and DEA lines are still operating below the zero axis, indicating that we are currently only in a weak rebound stage and have not yet entered a strong bullish market.
The KDJ three-line values are running upwards, forming a golden cross and entering a neutral to strong range, but have not yet become overheated. The current rebound is at the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. If it breaks through, the target will be the 79900-81600 area. However, if it falls below 77000 again and the MACD histogram increases in volume, it may retest the previous low of 74500, or even enter a new round of decline.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
The current price is operating near the upper Bollinger Band, approximately in the range of 78,000 to 78,500, with the Bollinger Bands slightly opening. The middle band provides effective support in the range of 76,700 to 77,000, while the upper band may become resistance. The DIF line and DEA line have formed a golden cross and are continuously rising, and the MACD red histogram is gradually increasing, indicating that the short to medium-term rebound signal is strengthening, but it is still in a bearish pattern.
The KDJ three-line values maintain a bullish arrangement, entering a high-level range, and are currently in a strong rebound phase, but there are signs of being overbought. The KDJ shows that the short-term rebound is approaching a high level, and caution is needed for high-level fatigue or pullback repair, especially as the J line value turning will trigger a short-term adjustment. The current rebound just touches the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level, which is a key resistance point.
Comprehensive analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a bottom oscillation repair period on the 4H level. The MACD and KDJ are showing rebound signals, the lower Bollinger Band support is effective, and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level is facing a critical breakthrough point. If it breaks through, there will be an opportunity to hit the 80000-81600 range; if it fails, we need to be alert for a pullback to 75000 or even lower. Currently, Bitcoin is showing a moderate rebound trend on the 1H level, the MACD golden cross is persistent, KDJ is at a high level, the middle Bollinger Band support is effective, and it is challenging the Fibonacci 23.6% critical resistance. If it can break through 78000 with volume, it is expected to strengthen further; otherwise, we still need to be wary of a short-term high followed by a pullback.
Based on the above, the expert provides the following suggestions for reference.
Bullish Strategy: If it breaks and stabilizes in the 77900-78000 area, one can take a light long position, targeting 79900-81600, with a stop-loss suggested around 77000.
Bearish Strategy: If Bitcoin rebounds to around 81600 and fails to break through the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, accompanied by a KDJ death cross and weakening MACD, one can attempt a light short position, targeting 78000-77600, with a stop-loss suggested around 82300.
Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as giving you the correct idea and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. It is suggested to earn temporarily, but learning the idea can earn for a lifetime! The focus is on ideas, grasping trends, planning market layouts, and position management. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and business management in the right direction. Writing time: (2025-04-10,00:40) (Written by the expert). Special declaration: Online publication has a delay, the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment areas such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks, with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the expert's account for discussion and communication.#美国加征关税
