According to Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, the long-standing dynamics between Bitcoin and gold are changing once again—and the numbers may indicate an ongoing shift.
In a recent tweet, Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have moved in opposite cycles, especially when measured by their Sharpe Ratios, a popular metric for assessing risk-adjusted returns. Although Bitcoin's ratio has recently been weak (currently at -0.40), gold's performance currently seems to be flat, with its Sharpe Ratio increasing to 1.33.
"Looking at the current situation, it may be Bitcoin's turn to lead," Timmer noted. "Perhaps we are about to shift from gold to Bitcoin."
Sharpe Ratio trend: Is BTC about to recover?
The chart shared in Timmer's post highlights the alternating strength of gold and Bitcoin over time. Each asset has its periods of outperformance, and the Sharpe Ratio has provided valuable insights. Currently:
Gold is outperforming but may be peaking.
Bitcoin is lagging, but the negative Sharpe may indicate that Bitcoin prices are nearing a bottom.
This could mean a return to BTC, especially if risk appetite returns and capital flows redirect from defensive assets like gold.
A macro view of digital and traditional safe havens
As the head of macro strategy at Fidelity, Timmer often views digital assets through a broader lens. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a reliable alternative store of value—complementary, but also increasingly competitive with gold. While both serve as hedges, their cycles and correlations differ significantly.
With the recent divergence in their Sharpe Ratios, Timmer's analysis might indicate an important inflection point. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's next move could surprise on the upside.
