Ali believes that this level acts as a key pivot point for the short-term trajectory of the asset:

"Holding above this level could drive momentum to $132,330, but losing it could trigger a pullback to $72,420."

What is STH Cost Basis?

The short-term holding cost basis is the average purchase price of BTC held by investors for less than 155 days. This is a commonly used on-chain metric reflecting short-term market sentiment and acts as a dynamic support/resistance line.

  • STH Cost Basis: $93,460

  • Target increase: $132,330 (if support is maintained)

  • Downside risk: $72,420 (if support is broken)

The chart tells us what

The chart from Glassnode shows Bitcoin's price moving between the euphoria zone and the critical capitulation zone.

As of May 2, 2025, BTC is trading just below this critical level (~$90,951), fluctuating near a decisive point that could indicate whether we are entering a new bullish phase or facing a significant pullback.

Why this matters now

The current range-bound behavior of Bitcoin is misleading—beneath the surface, metrics like STH Cost Basis are hinting at potential widespread changes in market structure.

If buyers attempt to reclaim and hold $93,460, it could ignite new momentum and push the price above $130,000.

Conversely, a breakdown could trigger potential downward pressure, aiming for a strong correction in the $70,000 range.