As Bitcoin's price climbed above $95,000, some market watchers began to question whether the current cycle is underperforming compared to previous bull runs. But according to Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital and the mind behind the new Bitcoin Cycle Model, those fears could be misguided.

Bitcoin Cycle Model: Explanation

In a tweet pinned on May 3, Sina introduced his exclusive Bitcoin Cycle Model — a tool that combines the traditional Quantile Model (QM) with additional cycle time factors.

This model overlays Bitcoin's historical performance with the average of previous cycles to assess whether current market behavior is lagging.

The chart shared by him shows many indicators:

  • Percentile range (1 and 99) – Indicates extreme historical pricing levels

  • Power law price curve – A theoretical forecast of long-term price behavior

  • Cycle model curve (orange) – The average trajectory of previous cycles

  • Actual Log Price – Actual price volatility of Bitcoin

This image clearly shows one thing: Bitcoin is still on its expected growth trajectory, just at a pace consistent with 'diminishing returns' — a characteristic of each successive cycle.

Decreasing volatility does not imply a deviation

Sina points out that while this cycle may seem 'boring' to many, it is due to slowing volatility rather than a lack of activity. The launch of an ETF, price action after a halving, and macro developments (including potential political changes like Trump’s re-election) may have 'extended' some expected price growth.

“We are still on the right track,” Sina asserts, reassuring the community that this model remains intact even if the pace is no longer explosive like in 2017 or 2021.

Why this matters

With institutional capital playing a much larger role and ETFs absorbing liquidity, short-term price stagnation could become the new norm — and that does not mean the bull market has gone off track.

What are the takeaways? Bitcoin may not be slowing down. It may be maturing.