This is the 25th day since buying the bottom on April 9th, with a floating profit of 510,000. This week, the floating profit retraced by 172,000, and the overall return rate dropped to 31%, with a retracement of 11%. Sister Bei did not make any trades this week and is just observing the changes in news and the market, still holding a full position in these three coins: SOL, RAY, and PEPE.
This week's floating profit retracement is quite painful, with the biggest issue stemming from changes in the fundamentals. Due to the non-farm payroll data significantly exceeding market expectations, the market's expectation for a rate cut in June has dropped to around 40%. Originally, Sister Bei predicted that the bullish trend in May would begin trading on the expectation of a rate cut in June, but this has undergone a significant reversal. The market dynamics are quite dramatic. Another unexpected point for Sister Bei is that the prediction of Bitcoin breaking and stabilizing above 95,000 was accurate, but the mainstream altcoins did not follow suit, failing to follow Bitcoin’s breakout to new highs, and instead oscillating downwards, forming a short-term top and a downward channel, which is also the main reason for the significant retracement.
During the period, there were 2 to 3 breakout signals, but Sister Bei still chose to hold without taking profits, hoping to challenge the position of the 120-day moving average. Now it seems that the mainstream is a false breakout. Since the prediction was wrong, one must admit the mistake. Although Sister Bei is fully invested, the highest point on Monday and the breakout of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart also reminded the group members to appropriately reduce their positions. Although there are signs that the daily level correction may have ended and the indicators are nearly repaired, there is still a possibility of another surge to a high point. However, considering that the current position is fully invested and the last 15% position at the peak is also in a losing state, the strategy for the next week is still to reduce positions by 30% to 50% at highs and wait for the situation to become clearer before considering re-entering.
In terms of specific operations, SOL and RAY are performing more steadily. Although they continue to decline, the short-term rebounds are also quite good. Currently, both coins have reached important support levels at 145 and 143, with significant support from multiple moving averages at 2.6 and 2.55 below, making it very difficult to break below with the current low-volume decline. Sister Bei believes a rebound could come at any time, with the ideal reduction positions being 149 and 152 for SOL, and 2.8 and 2.9 for RAY. Reduce positions by 30%, and hold the remaining positions bought at the bottom as long-term positions.
PEPE is performing very poorly and has already shown a clear head pattern, with weak rebounds. It has currently fallen to the significant support level of 800, and below that is the last line of bullish defense at 780. Therefore, the reduction after a PEPE rebound should be more significant, planning to reduce positions by 30% at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of 870, and another 20% at the neckline of the W pattern at 918. The remaining positions bought at the bottom will continue to be held as long-term positions.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 a.m. on May 8th will announce that there will be no rate cut in May. Chairman Powell's speech after the meeting will again decide the market's direction. Whether the reversal and upward trend can continue to break new highs depends on whether Powell is dovish and whether the possibility of a rate cut in June is raised again. We are waiting to see.
$SOL $RAY $PEPE #欧盟隐私币禁令 #非农就业数据来袭 #币安HODLer空投STO #数字资产法案 #加密市场反弹 
