Quick summary:

PEPEUSDT is in a clear downtrend, but some short-term technical signals indicate a potential short-term recovery at a strong support zone. Below is a detailed analysis and two potential trading scenarios for short-term and mid-term investors.

Detailed technical analysis

1.Price trend and EMA moving averages

  • The PEPE price is declining sharply (from -4.64% to -4.71%) in recent sessions.

  • EMA(7) continuously remains below EMA(25) and EMA(99) in most of the charts, confirming a medium- to long-term downtrend.

  • In the 1D Frame chart, EMA(7) has crossed above EMA(25) (0.0086211 > 0.0081958), but EMA(99) is still higher. This indicates short-term divergence but is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

2.RSI Index

  • RSI(6) fluctuates from 24.08 (oversold zone) to 44.72.

  • RSI(12/24) is between 32.82 and 50.72.

  • The 4h Frame chart shows RSI(6) at 24.08, reflecting an oversold state – potential for recovery in the short term, but RSI(24) is still below 50, so a clear upward trend is not confirmed.

3.MACD Indicator

  • Both DIF and DEA are negative for most of the chart, indicating that momentum is still weakening.

  • In the 1D Frame, MACD has slightly turned positive (DIF > DEA), but the histogram remains weak – reversal signals are not strong enough.

4.Trading volume and OBV

  • Strong volume fluctuations: from 333 million (15M Frame) to 52.8 billion (1D Frame).

  • Deep negative OBV in the 15M Frame and 4h Frame, indicating capital outflow.

  • However, the 1D Frame records a strong positive OBV (+9.66 billion) – a sign that buying pressure is re-emerging.

5.Support and resistance zones

  • The current price fluctuates around 0.00822 – 0.00825, close to the strong support zone of 0.00801 – 0.00806.

  • The nearest resistance is at 0.00835 – 0.00855, coinciding with the EMA(25) and EMA(99) zones.

Proposed trading strategy

Scenario 1: Buy at the support zone (Short-term)

  • Entry conditions:

    • Price adjusts to the zone of 0.00801 – 0.00806.

    • RSI(6) below 30 and starts to recover.

    • MACD histogram turns positive.

  • Success probability: ~65% (increases if volume and OBV align).

  • Stop loss: Below 0.00800.

  • Take profit: Zone 0.00835 – 0.00855.

Scenario 2: Short selling in a downtrend (Mid-term)

  • Entry conditions:

    • Price breaks the support zone of 0.00800.

    • EMA(7) continues to be below EMA(25/99).

    • RSI(24) below 50 and MACD clearly negative.

  • Success probability: ~70% (if volume weakens and OBV continues negative).

  • Stop loss: Above 0.00835.

  • Take profit: Zone 0.00780 – 0.00790.

Warnings and recommendations

  • High volatility: PEPE is a meme coin, so it is easily influenced by market sentiment and rumors.

  • Capital management: Only allocate a maximum of 2–5% of the total portfolio for each trade order.

  • Continuous updates: Closely monitor news events and price behavior to adjust strategies in a timely manner.

Conclusion:

PEPE is testing an important support zone. If confirmation signals appear from RSI and MACD, this could be a short-term recovery opportunity. Conversely, if support is broken, the downtrend may continue more strongly. Investors should closely monitor volume and OBV to make appropriate decisions.