Quick summary:
PEPEUSDT is in a clear downtrend, but some short-term technical signals indicate a potential short-term recovery at a strong support zone. Below is a detailed analysis and two potential trading scenarios for short-term and mid-term investors.
Detailed technical analysis
1.Price trend and EMA moving averages
The PEPE price is declining sharply (from -4.64% to -4.71%) in recent sessions.
EMA(7) continuously remains below EMA(25) and EMA(99) in most of the charts, confirming a medium- to long-term downtrend.
In the 1D Frame chart, EMA(7) has crossed above EMA(25) (0.0086211 > 0.0081958), but EMA(99) is still higher. This indicates short-term divergence but is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
2.RSI Index
RSI(6) fluctuates from 24.08 (oversold zone) to 44.72.
RSI(12/24) is between 32.82 and 50.72.
The 4h Frame chart shows RSI(6) at 24.08, reflecting an oversold state – potential for recovery in the short term, but RSI(24) is still below 50, so a clear upward trend is not confirmed.
3.MACD Indicator
Both DIF and DEA are negative for most of the chart, indicating that momentum is still weakening.
In the 1D Frame, MACD has slightly turned positive (DIF > DEA), but the histogram remains weak – reversal signals are not strong enough.
4.Trading volume and OBV
Strong volume fluctuations: from 333 million (15M Frame) to 52.8 billion (1D Frame).
Deep negative OBV in the 15M Frame and 4h Frame, indicating capital outflow.
However, the 1D Frame records a strong positive OBV (+9.66 billion) – a sign that buying pressure is re-emerging.
5.Support and resistance zones
The current price fluctuates around 0.00822 – 0.00825, close to the strong support zone of 0.00801 – 0.00806.
The nearest resistance is at 0.00835 – 0.00855, coinciding with the EMA(25) and EMA(99) zones.
Proposed trading strategy
Scenario 1: Buy at the support zone (Short-term)
Entry conditions:
Price adjusts to the zone of 0.00801 – 0.00806.
RSI(6) below 30 and starts to recover.
MACD histogram turns positive.
Success probability: ~65% (increases if volume and OBV align).
Stop loss: Below 0.00800.
Take profit: Zone 0.00835 – 0.00855.
Scenario 2: Short selling in a downtrend (Mid-term)
Entry conditions:
Price breaks the support zone of 0.00800.
EMA(7) continues to be below EMA(25/99).
RSI(24) below 50 and MACD clearly negative.
Success probability: ~70% (if volume weakens and OBV continues negative).
Stop loss: Above 0.00835.
Take profit: Zone 0.00780 – 0.00790.
Warnings and recommendations
High volatility: PEPE is a meme coin, so it is easily influenced by market sentiment and rumors.
Capital management: Only allocate a maximum of 2–5% of the total portfolio for each trade order.
Continuous updates: Closely monitor news events and price behavior to adjust strategies in a timely manner.
Conclusion:
PEPE is testing an important support zone. If confirmation signals appear from RSI and MACD, this could be a short-term recovery opportunity. Conversely, if support is broken, the downtrend may continue more strongly. Investors should closely monitor volume and OBV to make appropriate decisions.