Detailed technical analysis of ADA/USDT (from time frames 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, and 1 day):
1. Price trend (EMA):
- Short-term EMA (7) > Medium-term EMA (25) > Long-term EMA (99) in most time frames, indicating a short-term upward trend.
- However, there is divergence between time frames (e.g., EMA(99) at 0.7221 in the 15m timeframe is higher than short-term EMA, indicating resistance).
2. RSI Indicator:
- RSI(6) fluctuates from 43.07 (1h timeframe, oversold) to 81.85 (5m timeframe, overbought), indicating strong market volatility.
- RSI(12) and RSI(24 mostly around average (50-70), unclear long-term trend.
3. MACD:
- There is positive movement when DIF > DEA (5m; 15m and 1 day), but the 1h timeframe shows negative MACD (-0.0005), indicating a potential downtrend.
- Thin MACD line (e.g., 0.0018) indicates weak momentum.
4. Volume (VOL)
- Trading volume fluctuates significantly: From 805k to 2.1M.
- Average volume (MA5, MA15) lower than the current value in some images, indicating a lack of support from cash flow.
5. OBV (On-Balance Volume):
- Negative OBV in 3/5 images (5m, 4h, 1 day), indicating selling pressure is dominant.
- Only the 1h and 15m timeframes show positive OBV, but not sustainable.
Position opening plan:
Scenario 1: Short-term buying (Scalping)
- Condition:
- Price is above EMA(7) and EMA(25)
- RSI(6) < 70 (avoid overbought).
- Positive MACD (DIF > DEA).
- Enter trade: Buy around 0.7200 (support from EMA).
- Take profit: 0.7280 (resistance from EMA(99) or RSI(6) > 80.
- Stop loss: Below EMA(25) (~0.7030).
- Success probability: ~60% (due to RSI and MACD not being extremely strong).
Scenario 2: Short selling (If support breaks)
- Condition:
- Price breaks below EMA(7) and EMA(25).
- RSI(6) > 70 (overbought) or negative MACD.
- Enter trade: Sell if price closes below 0.7150.
- Take profit: 0.7050 (support from EMA99).
- Stop loss: Above 0.7250.
- Success probability: ~55% (due to the overall trend still being upward).
Scenario 3: Wait for breakout
- Condition:
- Price accumulates around 0.7200 with increasing volume (as in image 5).
- MACD and RSI are in agreement (e.g., RSI(12) > 60, MACD increasing).
- Enter trade: Buy if price breaks 0.7250 with high volume.
- Take profit: 0.7400.
- Stop loss: Below 0.7150.
- Success probability: ~65% (if there is FOMO).
Note on risk:
- Strong fluctuations from RSI and opposing OBV.
- Unstable volume can lead to false breakout.
- Should combine multiple time frames (check 4h/1 day to confirm trend).
Summary: Prioritize scenario 1 (short-term buying) with the highest probability, but need to manage losses tightly.