1. Price trend and EMA:
- Current price: 0.1948 (-4.18%), below most EMA lines (7, 25, 99) on the time frames, indicating a short-term downtrend.
- EMA(7) < EMA(25) < EMA(99) in most frames (for example: 0.1953 < 0.1975 < 0.2015 in the 15-minute frame), confirming the downtrend.
- However, the 1-day frame shows EMA(7) (0.2018) crossing above EMA(99) (0.2038), which could signal a reversal if the price breaks resistance.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
- RSI(6) fluctuates between 22.65–48.51, often below 30 (oversold), especially in the 1-hour frame (22.65) and the 15-minute frame (27.11). This indicates the potential for a short-term rebound.
- RSI(12) and RSI(24) are also low (29.02–58.99), not oversold but showing signs of recovery.
3. MACD:
- MACD negative or near 0 in most frames (15-minute frame: 0.0000; 1-hour frame: -0.0009), but the 1-day frame has a positive MACD (**0.0004**), indicating that the downward momentum is slowing down.
- DIF and DEA are close to crossing, need to monitor the upward crossing signal.
4. Volume (Vol):
- Trading volume sharply decreases compared to MA(5) and MA(15) (15-minute frame: Vol 346k vs MA(5) 820k), selling pressure is gradually weakening.
- The 1-day frame has a spike in volume (96.2M), possibly due to large inflows.
5. Support/Resistance:
- Nearest support: 0.1934–0.1948 (15-minute frame).
- Resistance: 0.1973–0.2011 (EMA and Fibonacci levels from the 15-minute frame).
Opening position plan and probability of success:
Scenario 1: Buy (Long) short-term
- Entry point:
- Price breaks 0.1973 (EMA 25) or RSI(6) > 30 along with positive MACD.
- Stop loss: 0.1934 (strong support).
- Profit target:
- 0.2011–0.2050 (EMA 99 or Fibonacci resistance).
- Probability of success: ~60-70% if volume increases to confirm the trend.
Scenario 2: Short sell if the downtrend continues
- Entry point:
- Price drops below 0.1934 and RSI(6) < 20.
- Stop loss: 0.1973.
- Target: 0.1850–0.1701 (long-term support from the 4-hour frame).
- Probability of success: ~50-60% due to RSI being oversold, high risk.
Scenario 3: Wait for a clear signal
- If the price fluctuates around 0.1948–0.1973, wait:
- MACD crossing up + RSI(6) > 30 to buy.
- Or price breaks the low to sell.
- Probability of success: Higher (~75%) but may miss the opportunity.
Important note:
1. Risk management:
- Always set a stop loss (1-2% of account).
- Minimum Risk-Reward ratio 1:2 (for example: stop loss 0.1934, take profit 0.2011).
2. Monitor news: Significant volatility in volume (1-day frame) may be due to news.
3. Multi-timeframe combination: Confirm signals on the 1h/4h frame to reduce noise.
Summary: Prioritize scenario 1 (Long) if the price breaks 0.1973 with a probability of ~65%. If the market is weak, wait or apply scenario 2 with higher risk.