Trading is not guessing, but a game of conditional scenarios, where your profit depends on your ability to weigh probabilities and act according to the plan.
🔄 "If → then" is your decision-making algorithm
1. "If the price holds the level as support" → I consider buying or a long position.
2. "If the price breaks the level and turns it into resistance" → I prepare for a short or expect further decline.
3. "If the price fluctuates in uncertainty" → I stay out of the market or reduce my position size.
🎯 Key principles
- There are no absolute predictions. There is only the optimal response to current conditions.
- Market depth is determined by actions, not opinions of random people. Ignore the noise ("It will go up/down!") — such comments usually come from those who are losing money and looking for someone to blame.
- Risk management is your insurance. Even with a high probability scenario, always consider: "What if I'm wrong?"
📊 How to train probabilistic thinking?
1. Record your hypotheses before entering a trade:
- "I'm buying here because..."
- "Stop-loss below the level because..."
2. Analyze mistakes. If the price went against you — was the breakout statistically significant? Or did you ignore the context?
3. Use historical data. How often has this level worked as support/resistance in the past?
💡 Professional philosophy
> "The market is a mirror of your discipline. The clearer your 'if → then' rules, the less emotion and more system in your results."
P.S. Your main asset is not predictions, but flexibility and readiness to adapt. Focus on the process, and profit will be a consequence.
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