Crypto trenches require individuals to either be fully committed and all in, or completely refrain from participating. Recently, several retirement groups I was part of have either folded or people have left.
Reasons are as follows:
1. If not everyone in a group can actively participate, it harms those who do engage positively.
2. Even with the market recovery, there are still many who enjoy spreading FUD; early FUD during high tolerance for market fluctuations is negative EV.
3. Although many have retreated significantly after Trump, they have still filled their pockets, and the drive is lacking; they have become complacent.
In recent opportunities with relatively high certainty or good narratives and sentiment, if not 80% of people in a group are involved, it indicates that the group is struggling to enter a wartime preparation state.
The types of opportunities vary, but all have clear expectations. It’s fine to miss one, but if everyone misses, it shows the group is useless:
1. Skyai presale, even if it’s a headlong rush, hardly anyone in the group acted decisively.
2. The 3M Grassito frog, purchased by the founder of letsbonk, has two leading entities that previously pushed it up to 30M+, which are strong benchmarks, yet no one was sensitive to it.
3. The 5M launchtoken, where two golden dogs on the platform gave an opportunity for over 5M for a whole morning, but not many discussed it.
4. The 8M gork, which many from xai are following, has a high probability of interaction with Musk.
The more the market comes back, the more one must manage their emotions and state, reduce the likelihood of negative feedback around them, stay away from biased wealthy individuals, and engage in more discussions, thinking, and practice.