On Thursday night, the short liquidation at 96500 was extremely brutal, and the content analyzed in the past two articles has basically all been realized!

We have been continuously monitoring the 96500 level for two weeks, and this price point has finally completed liquidation. I am very curious as to why there is so much short liquidity here, and it's even a short-term high-leverage short position...

Overall, this wave of liquidation seems very quiet, but in reality, it harbors hidden dangers!

Because it has indeed brought the price to the front of the long-term liquidation zone above, and the liquidity gap we have been monitoring is now only a little left, but the price has not made a sharp rise after piercing through, I guess there are only two reasons:

1. Long-term liquidity has mostly closed positions over time, resulting in insufficient fuel above;

2. The market is still waiting for the non-farm and unemployment data on Friday night. Even if this wave of market movement is a hunting behavior by large funds in the futures market, they still have to guard against negative surprises from the non-farm figures, which could be directly doused by large spot funds...

Therefore, the focus of the current market remains on Friday's macro data. Grok's assessment of the impact of the May 2 data on prices is: non-farm payrolls greater than 200,000 or less than 100,000 will be interpreted as bearish, and only a market expectation close to 135,000 is considered to have no impact...

Anna Wang's team believes that employment data will show a clear weakening in May and June, as seasonal hiring in the transportation industry has been affected by the trade war, and this April data is unlikely to bring positive effects; the best-case scenario is that the market ignores it and shifts focus to the May data;

And the worst-case scenario is that the market gets scared again...

With 96500 completely liquidated now, the area with the highest accumulated liquidity in the futures market has returned to the bulls. Regardless of whether the future price has the ability to enter the next long-term short liquidation zone and reach 103000;

In the short term, the range of 83000~82000 will be a point worth paying attention to.