Technical analysis of BTC/USDT from time frames: 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1 day: at the time of writing:
1. Current price and short-term trend
- Current price: 96,283.33 USDT, down -0.37%.
- Short-term EMAs (7, 25, 99) indicate mixed signals:
- EMA(7) is below EMA(25) in some frames (e.g., 95,298.65 < 90,854.82 in 1 day frame), indicating downward pressure.
- However, in the 1h time frame, EMA(7) > EMA(25) (96,362.02 > 96,580.04), but EMA(99) is lower (95,837.44), reflecting an unclear trend.
2. RSI indicator
- RSI(6): Ranges from 36.97 (oversold) to 72.61 (overbought).
- 1 day time frame: RSI(6) = 72.61 → May adjust downwards.
- 1h time frame: RSI(6) = 36.97 → There is potential for recovery.
- Mid-term RSI (12, 24) mostly in the neutral zone (40-60), no extreme signals yet.
3. MACD
- MACD histogram negative in most frames (e.g., -65.81 in 4h frame, -83.33 in 1h frame), indicating bearish momentum is dominant.
- Only the 15m frame has a positive MACD (+14.73), but DIF < DEA (-71.03 < -85.76) → Weak signal.
4. Volume
- Trading volume gradually decreasing across frames (from 4,365.66 in 1 day frame to 20.72 in 5m frame), reflecting a lack of interest from the market.
5. Support & Resistance
- Nearest support level: 95,376.53 (1h frame).
- Resistance level: 98,150.47 (4h frame) and 98,774.48 (1 day frame).
Opening position plan and success probability:
Scenario 1: Buy (Long)
- Conditions:
- Price breaks resistance 98,150.47 with a spike in volume.
- RSI(6) exits the oversold zone (<30) and MACD turns positive.
- Success probability: ~50% (due to unclear trend).
- Stop-loss point: Below support: 95,376.53
- Take-profit: 100,000.00 (important psychological level).
Scenario 2: Sell (Short)
- Conditions:
- Price drops below support 95,376.53 and RSI(6) >70 (overbought).
- MACD negative expands.
- Success probability: ~60% (stronger downward momentum in the short term).
- Stop-loss: Above 96,500.00.
- Take-profit: 92,222.01 (EMA 99 in IMG_2303).
Scenario 3: Wait for more signals
- If the price continues to sideways between 95,376.53 - 98,150.47, do not enter a trade.
- Monitor the cross of EMA(7) and EMA(25) or RSI divergence.
Note:
1. Indicators provide conflicting signals, need to combine with macro news (Bitcoin ETF, FED interest rates).
2. Low volume increases the risk of strong volatility.
3. Prioritize risk management (do not use more than 2% of capital per trade).
Summary:
- Short-term: Consider Short if the price breaks support (higher probability).
- Long-term: Wait for clear signals from EMA and MACD.