I. Key position overview

- Support level:

- Core support: Bottom of the 4-hour consolidation area 96300 (must defend position, breaking turns weak).

- Secondary support: 95300→94110→92845 (step-by-step downward targets).

- Resistance level:

- Short-term resistance: Top of the consolidation area 97390 (breaking opens upward space).

- Advanced target: 98500→99400→100370 (step-by-step breakthrough).

II. Two scenario strategies

1. Backtest not breaking 96300: Bullish outlook

- Signal: Price stabilizes and rebounds around 96300, has not broken this position.

- Operation:

- Long opportunity: Light position to try long, stop loss set below 96000, first target 97390, after breaking look for 98500+.

- Logic: Continuation of the consolidation structure, bulls control the market, small pullbacks are entry opportunities.

2. Break below 96300: Bearish outlook

- Signal: Price effectively breaks below 96300 (confirmed by 30-minute closing price).

- Operation:

- Short opportunity: Light position to try short, stop loss set above 96600, target down to 95300, if broken look for 94110.

- Logic: 4-hour level breaks, market turns to correction, need to guard against accelerated decline.

III. Notes

1. Position control: Single operation position ≤ 20%, avoid full position hold.

2. Stop-loss discipline: Strictly carry stop-loss, do not increase position against the trend after support/resistance breaks.

3. Time window: Low liquidity at night, beware of sudden volatility,

4. Trend linkage: Daily level still leans upward, after breaking, the downward space may be limited, avoid chasing shorts at low levels.

IV. Summary

- Core logic: 96300 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, maintaining stability leads to oscillation upward, breaking opens corrections.

- Strategy focus:

- Long: Buy low relying on the support at 96300, betting on the breakthrough of 97390.

- Short: Only participate after an effective breakout, take profits in batches at lower support levels.

- Risk warning: Market volatility is high, operations need to be flexible, avoid blindly chasing highs and selling lows, waiting for clear signals is the best choice.$BTC #比特币走势