Is the waterfall or the mountaintop tonight? Net inflow reveals the truth!

The Bitcoin ETF market staged a "money-absorption battle" yesterday, raking in $423 million in a single day, setting a new three-month high.

BlackRock's IBIT fund alone attracted $351 million in a single day, equivalent to moving the entire output of a Bitcoin mine for three days directly into the ETF; closely following it, Fidelity's BTC fund also grabbed $41.9 million, with these two accounting for 90% of the total inflow for the day.

Behind this wave of funding is three key signals: first, IBIT has maintained net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative scale surpassing $42 billion, setting the record for the longest continuous money absorption for a single ETF;

Finally, the retail investor following effect is evident, with the BTC fund's daily inflow surging 147% compared to last week's average.

However, caution is needed regarding the risk of market overheating: the total holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have now reached $109 billion, accounting for 5.8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, and such concentration of holdings could trigger a liquidity crisis.

More subtly, the open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has simultaneously decreased by 3%, indicating that some institutions are quietly laying out short positions to hedge risks while sweeping up on the spot market.

It is recommended to closely monitor the fund flows after the U.S. stock market opens tonight; if there is an outflow exceeding $50 million in a single hour, it may indicate a short-term correction.

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