The Night Before SOL's Surge? Key Support Shows Major Accumulation Signals Above, A Break Above $152 Will Ignite the Market
Summary
The current price of SOL is $150.86, firmly standing above the MA200 and holding cost as dual support, oscillating near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. It is recommended to gradually build positions in the range of $149.5-$151.5 in the short term, add positions if the upper Bollinger Band at $152.95 is broken, and strictly stop-loss if it falls below $148.8. Be cautious of the false breakout risks caused by shrinking trading volume and the continued pressure of the long-short ratio decreasing.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: The price is near the middle line (150.89), with the Bollinger Band width narrowing (152.95/148.83), showing a neutral oscillating pattern at 49.3% percentile
• MA200 Position: The current price is 1.13% above the 1-hour MA200 (149.18), forming dynamic support
• Holding Cost Position: The current price is at a 2.39% premium over the 1-hour holding cost (147.34), indicating that profit-taking has not significantly occurred
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: The 24-hour trading volume ratio of 0.398 shows a shrinking rise, and the price increase of 1.95% lacks volume support
• Open Interest Trend: 1-hour open interest decreased by 0.09% while the price increased by 0.22%, indicating signs of major players lowering prices to accumulate
• Long-Short Ratio Changes: The smart money long-short ratio changed from 1.6927 to 1.6829, indicating a continued weakening of the long position advantage in the derivatives market
3. Key Positions:
• Support Level 148.83: Triple support from the lower Bollinger Band + MA200 + holding cost
• Resistance Level 152.95: Upper Bollinger Band and the upper edge of the historical trading dense area
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle: In the mid-stage of a bull market adjustment phase, the on-chain holding cost continues to rise (147.34→149.18), showing that the long-term bullish foundation remains
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Points:
• Entry Point 150.00 (set an order 0.5% below the current price to absorb oscillating chips)
• Stop-Loss Point 148.50 (below the triple support by 0.2%)
• Target Point 153.00 (region of simultaneous rise in volume and price after breaking the upper Bollinger Band)
• Risk-Reward Ratio 2:1 ((153-150)/(150-148.5)=2)
2. Risk Warning:
• Continuous spot trading volume below $30B will lead to failed breakouts
• Meme coin Gork speculation may divert funds from the SOL ecosystem
• Immediate profit-taking is required if the perpetual contract funding rate turns negative
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