Three scenarios for further market movement from CryptoQuant
As of today, the on-chain metric "Rally Start Ratio" is approaching the rally start zone (≈0.8 or 80%). Analysts are considering three possible scenarios for the development of the situation over the next six months:
🟢 Optimistic scenario (Bullish)
If the Ratio indicator breaks through 1.0 and holds above, the NUPL and MVRV metrics will show new momentum. This could lead to a rise in the $BTC price to $150-175K, similar to the 2017 and 2021 cycles.
🟠 Baseline Scenario (Consolidation)
If Ratio remains in the range of 0.8-1.0, the market will continue to move in a wide corridor of $90-110K. Participants maintain positions, but do not increase exposure.
🔴 Pessimistic scenario (Correction)
If the Ratio drops below 0.75, short-term holders may start taking profits, which will lead to a correction to $70-85K. However, given that the correction has already occurred, the first two scenarios are more likely.