Renowned analyst CryptoQuant Axel Adler Jr. has published a fresh forecast for Bitcoin, outlining 3 probable scenarios for market development in the next 6 months. According to him, at the moment, the on-chain momentum index is in the rally initiation zone, having reached a level of 0.8 or 80%. This signals a potential start of a major upward movement, the outcome of which will depend on the dynamics of the key Ratio indicator.
In the optimistic scenario, it will exceed 1.0 and stabilize above it. Then the NUPL and MVRV metrics will form a new impulse, and the price of Bitcoin could reach the range of $150,000 – $175,000. This scenario will mimic market behavior during the bullish cycles of 2017 and 2021. Such dynamics will enhance interest from institutional investors and pave the way for new historical highs.
The baseline scenario implies that the Ratio will remain in the range of 0.8 – 1.0. In this case, the price will move within a broad sideways range from $90,000 to $110,000. Market participants will maintain their positions but will not increase volumes. This will allow for the accumulation of liquidity and the establishment of a stable base for future upward movement.
The pessimistic scenario suggests a decrease in the Ratio to 0.75 and below. In this case, short-term holders will begin to take profits, leading to a correction in the BTC price in the range of $70,000 – $85,000. However, according to the analyst, given the correction that has already occurred, the likelihood of this scenario is lower than the first two. 📌 Adler Jr. publishes extensive reviews weekly on the Substack platform. He analyzes not only on-chain data but also macroeconomics, the stock market, futures, and current news, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin investors. As of May 1, 2025, the Bitcoin price has increased by 1.23% over the day and is around $96,165.
