🤯💥𝑼.𝑺. 𝑷𝑪𝑬 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑺𝒕𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒚 𝒂𝒕 𝟐.𝟑% 𝒊𝒏 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒄𝒉, 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝑪𝒖𝒕 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝑻𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒍𝒆❗❗
March data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows PCE inflation held steady at 2.3% year-over-year, with no change month-over-month—exactly in line with forecasts. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, eased to 2.6% YoY—its lowest since June 2024.
Despite this cooling trend, hopes for a May rate cut have diminished. Even with JOLTS job openings hitting a four-year low—a potential case for easing—Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC remain cautious. Concerns over possible inflationary effects from Trump’s proposed tariffs are taking center stage.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 92.2% of traders expect no rate change at the upcoming May 6–7 FOMC meeting. Polymarket data aligns, putting the probability of a pause at 93%.