$Spot gold fell 2.00% intraday, currently reported at $3222.44 per ounce, possibly due to the following reasons:

Macroeconomic and Policy Factors

- Easing Trade Tensions: The trade tensions are expected to further ease, leading to a decline in market demand for safe-haven assets. Previously, during trade frictions, gold was favored due to its safe-haven attributes, causing prices to rise. However, after the Trump administration signaled on April 30 that it would announce the first batch of trade agreements and reduce tariffs on major trading partners, market expectations for an escalation of the “trade war” reversed, leading institutional investors to sell off gold, resulting in a price decline. For instance, the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at a significant reduction in tariffs on China, resonating with the U.S. Fed's April core PCE price index data, which weakened the inflation-hedging logic of gold.

- Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: The April PCE data exceeded expectations (core inflation at 2.6% year-on-year), disrupting the market's prior consensus on the Fed's rate cut timeline in June. U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the dollar index rebounded strongly. A high-interest rate environment increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading speculative funds to accelerate their exit. Additionally, the expectation of a slowdown in the Fed's balance sheet reduction did not materialize, leading to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut in June and a rise in expectations for a cut in September, which also impacted the gold market.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices fell below the key support level of $3250, triggering systemic risks. The daily MACD indicator formed a death cross, the KDJ indicator entered the oversold zone, and the RSI indicator quickly fell from the overbought range, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. At the same time, non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold decreased, and speculative short positions were released, exacerbating market panic and triggering more sell-offs.

Geopolitical Factors

New developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On May 1, local time in Ukraine, related individuals revealed that based on an agreement between the Ukrainian and U.S. presidents, the “U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement” was signed. Russia has also repeatedly signaled its willingness to negotiate directly with Ukraine. The easing of geopolitical tensions reduced the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Moreover, changes in market sentiment may also influence investor behavior, prompting them to sell gold and push prices down. #黄金