Continuously oscillating below 965, accumulating liquidity in the 🈳head, waiting for the clearing intensity to be sufficient to withstand spot selling pressure before proceeding with the clearing, which is expected to open up greater upward space, breaking through the liquidity gap of 970~980 and advancing into the long-term bearish area of 990~1030. Therefore, the later the 965 test occurs, the greater the potential for an upward movement; the earlier the clearing, the higher the probability of the market climbing to 1030. Currently, the bearish liquidity at the 965 position has reached its highest peak since April, becoming one of the four strongest clearing areas! $BTC $ETH #稳定币日常支付
April 29 marks the 100th day of Trump's presidency, and the White House held various celebratory events for this occasion.
April 29 marks the 100th day of Trump's presidency, and the White House held various celebratory events for this occasion. However, Trump is likely finding it hard to be happy, because on this centennial, there are hardly any truly celebratory events, and the first serious consequence arising from his tariff war has even emerged.
Just north of the U.S., the situation in Canada was developing in a direction that Trump least wanted to see. 100 days ago, the ruling Liberal Party in Canada was in a difficult position, and at that time, it seemed that their defeat in the upcoming election was a foregone conclusion, with then-Prime Minister Trudeau being forced to resign early due to mounting pressures.
【Today's Key Economic Data and Events: May 1, 2025, Thursday】 ① 14:30 Switzerland March Actual Retail Sales Year-on-Year ② 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo holds a press conference ③ 16:30 UK April Manufacturing PMI Final ④ 16:30 UK March Bank of England Mortgage Approvals ⑤ 19:30 US April Challenger Job Cuts ⑥ 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26 ⑦ 21:45 US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final ⑧ 22:00 US April ISM Manufacturing PMI ⑨ 22:00 US March Construction Spending Month-on-Month ⑩ 22:30 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending April 25: #山寨币ETF展望
$Spot gold fell 2.00% intraday, currently reported at $3222.44 per ounce, possibly due to the following reasons:
Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
- Easing Trade Tensions: The trade tensions are expected to further ease, leading to a decline in market demand for safe-haven assets. Previously, during trade frictions, gold was favored due to its safe-haven attributes, causing prices to rise. However, after the Trump administration signaled on April 30 that it would announce the first batch of trade agreements and reduce tariffs on major trading partners, market expectations for an escalation of the “trade war” reversed, leading institutional investors to sell off gold, resulting in a price decline. For instance, the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at a significant reduction in tariffs on China, resonating with the U.S. Fed's April core PCE price index data, which weakened the inflation-hedging logic of gold.
- Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: The April PCE data exceeded expectations (core inflation at 2.6% year-on-year), disrupting the market's prior consensus on the Fed's rate cut timeline in June. U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the dollar index rebounded strongly. A high-interest rate environment increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading speculative funds to accelerate their exit. Additionally, the expectation of a slowdown in the Fed's balance sheet reduction did not materialize, leading to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut in June and a rise in expectations for a cut in September, which also impacted the gold market.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices fell below the key support level of $3250, triggering systemic risks. The daily MACD indicator formed a death cross, the KDJ indicator entered the oversold zone, and the RSI indicator quickly fell from the overbought range, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. At the same time, non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold decreased, and speculative short positions were released, exacerbating market panic and triggering more sell-offs.
Geopolitical Factors
New developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On May 1, local time in Ukraine, related individuals revealed that based on an agreement between the Ukrainian and U.S. presidents, the “U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement” was signed. Russia has also repeatedly signaled its willingness to negotiate directly with Ukraine. The easing of geopolitical tensions reduced the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, changes in market sentiment may also influence investor behavior, prompting them to sell gold and push prices down. #黄金
The Loss Trap in the Crypto Circle: Why Frequent Trading is a 'Wealth Crusher'?
In the fog of wealth-building legends in the crypto circle, the core reason why 90% of investors return defeated lies in the dual pitfalls of human weaknesses and trading logic:
One, Four Fatal Wounds: How ordinary investors step by step head towards losses
1. High-Frequency Trading: A vicious cycle of 'working for the market' through fees
- Cost Erosion of Profits: More than ten trades in a single day can accumulate enough fees to swallow all profits, ultimately resulting in 'wasted efforts';
- Emotion-Driven Operation: FOMO (fear of missing out) leads to chasing highs during rises, panic selling during declines, becoming a puppet of market emotions;
Multiple institutions have a consistent expectation regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, generally believing that this meeting will maintain the policy unchanged, but there are differences regarding the subsequent rate hike path and economic outlook:
- Adjustments in economic and inflation expectations: Institutions such as Mitsubishi UFJ and Crédit Agricole expect that the Bank of Japan may lower its economic growth and core inflation forecasts for this year, particularly focusing on the yen's appreciation and the decline in oil prices, which may suppress inflation.
- Timing of rate hikes:
- Most institutions have postponed their rate hike expectations: Bank of America, ANZ, and others have pushed the next rate hike timeline from mid-year to year-end (for instance, ANZ has postponed it to October); Citigroup and S&P believe there will be no rate hike this year.
- A Reuters survey shows that 84% of economists believe that the interest rate will remain at 0.50% before the end of June, and 52% expect a potential rate hike in the third quarter.
- Policy dilemmas and risk focus:
- External uncertainties such as Trump’s policies and trade tariffs (e.g., auto tariffs), combined with the balancing act of rising domestic inflation and wage growth, have become key contradictions in policy-making.
- IG Group, Continuum Economics, and others point out that the central bank may release a cautious tone during the press conference, emphasizing the need to observe whether wage growth can continue to exceed inflation to support confidence in policy normalization.
- Yen trend correlation: Some institutions (e.g., Mitsubishi UFJ) believe that even if the central bank is cautious about rate hikes, there is still room for the yen to appreciate, and attention should be paid to whether it mentions that a stronger exchange rate may slow down the pace of policy tightening. $BTC $ETH #特朗普税改
Happy May Day Holiday! Yesterday, influenced by negative GDP data, the market showed a false breakdown of the trend line on a smaller time frame, quickly rebounding after seizing liquidity below, forming a wave of deceptive market conditions. The upper target still looks towards the liquidity area and resistance level of 962. Currently, a considerable amount of liquidity has accumulated, and if it can be successfully seized this week, it will be more favorable for initiating a corrective trend. The high short strategy remains in place, and please set stop losses and avoid counter-trend trading.
Afternoon Trading Strategy - Short near 952-957, targeting around 930, and if broken, further down to 918. - Short near 1820-1840, targeting around 1780. If broken, further down to 1720.
Personal advice for reference only $BTC $ETH #山寨币ETF展望
The large pancake is over two thousand, and the concubine is seventy-five. In the evening, I will also provide tips for the US stock market! $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha上新
The bad news has arrived, following it means you will profit Auntie Kong is still more powerful! #币安Alpha上新 $BTC $ETH
卓远日记
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4.30 Evening Analysis
Tonight, three important indicators will be released: April Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP), March Core PCE, and Q1 GDP. If there are negative signals, the target still looks relatively optimistic.
From the one-hour chart of Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands show that the price is struggling to break through the upper band, and the bands are gradually narrowing, indicating insufficient upward momentum for bulls. The KDJ indicator shows a death cross trend near the overbought zone, indicating that short-term bullish strength is being released. The MACD indicator's red bars are gradually shortening, suggesting that bullish energy is waning, and the DIF line may cross below the DEA line to form a death cross. If it does not break and stabilize above 960, it's still advisable to remain cautious and set proper stop-loss levels.
Evening Trading Strategy - Short Bitcoin around 953-958, continue to look for a drop towards 935. If it breaks, further down to 918. - Short Ethereum around 183-185, continue to look for a drop towards 1780, if it breaks, further down to 1720. This personal suggestion is for reference only $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha上新
Recently, there have been some striking movements in the Nvidia options market. A number of put options with a strike price of $165 have emerged, with individual transactions reaching as high as $11.5 million. Such large-scale trades are likely being orchestrated by institutions and large investors.
It is worth noting that most of these put options are concentrated with an expiration date of July 18. Generally speaking, around option expiration dates, market volatility tends to increase, which also indicates that Nvidia's stock price trend in July may not be calm. Moreover, these trades are tagged as 'opening', indicating new positions being established, suggesting that investors are building new put positions.
Currently, Nvidia's stock price is $109, while the PUT strike price is set at $165, which hides a bold expectation – that Nvidia's stock price will experience an extreme drop, potentially even a significant plunge. The reason for such extreme bearish expectations may be that the market anticipates Nvidia's earnings report will be disappointing, or it could be due to macroeconomic shocks impacting Nvidia's future development prospects. If Nvidia's stock price does indeed drop significantly, investors holding these put options will profit from it. For ordinary investors, this movement undoubtedly releases a strong signal that greater caution is needed when investing in Nvidia stocks, closely monitoring the company's earnings reports and macroeconomic dynamics to guard against the risks of significant price fluctuations.
Tonight, three important indicators will be released: April Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP), March Core PCE, and Q1 GDP. If there are negative signals, the target still looks relatively optimistic.
From the one-hour chart of Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands show that the price is struggling to break through the upper band, and the bands are gradually narrowing, indicating insufficient upward momentum for bulls. The KDJ indicator shows a death cross trend near the overbought zone, indicating that short-term bullish strength is being released. The MACD indicator's red bars are gradually shortening, suggesting that bullish energy is waning, and the DIF line may cross below the DEA line to form a death cross. If it does not break and stabilize above 960, it's still advisable to remain cautious and set proper stop-loss levels.
Evening Trading Strategy - Short Bitcoin around 953-958, continue to look for a drop towards 935. If it breaks, further down to 918. - Short Ethereum around 183-185, continue to look for a drop towards 1780, if it breaks, further down to 1720. This personal suggestion is for reference only $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha上新
Don't be fooled by the 'presidential halo'! Trump this time is not just about issuing currency; he calls it 'to support their financial empire.' Is this what we call a practical token? It's simply absurd!
I thought he could bring new vitality to the crypto space, but instead, he's like a digger with a shovel, leaving the pool riddled with holes. While shouting the Web3 slogan, he secretly withdraws liquidity—what else can this be called if not deception? Anyone who believes this will truly become the last buyer, losing everything!
While claiming to support the development of cryptocurrencies, he's frantically harvesting the chives; this is not entering the circle, but falling into a carefully designed trap! Everyone must stay alert and not be deceived by his sweet talk and false promises. Stay away from this dangerous 'money game' and protect your financial security.
In early April, the pancake (大饼) plummeted under the influence of multiple negative factors, with risk aversion triggered by tariff issues accelerating 📉, reaching a low of around 744. Subsequently, the tariff policy shifted from suspension to easing, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded by more than 20,000 points within two weeks, with the increase far exceeding expectations. This surge was mainly driven by factors related to Trump and institutional capital. Currently, institutions continue to accumulate, but the market lacks sufficient adjustments, and technical indicators show divergence signals, entering a high-level adjustment phase again. As the May Day holiday approaches, market trading becomes cautious, and the coin price fluctuates narrowly between 930-957, presenting a stalemate of 'pullback then rebound, breaking points meet support.' It is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low. Personal advice is for reference only $BTC $ETH #币安Alpha上新
【Beware of Risks in the Cryptocurrency Market! Strange Signals at the 95,000 Bitcoin Level】
📊Market Anomalies:
- The price is being deliberately “controlled” in the 95,000-95,500 range, quickly pulled back after three sharp declines, appearing to be “strong support” but is actually a trap to lure in buyers for accumulation.
- A sudden appearance of 6,000 BTC sell orders above 95,500, suspected to be “fishing” to entice chasing the high, with liquidity dropping sharply to normal levels of 1/3, and the dense chip area hides the risk of a crash.
⚠️Technical Warnings:
- Continuous three days of long lower shadow doji + MACD golden cross without volume, a typical top signal, with the rise lacking genuine capital support.
- Historical Repetition: Last time a similar “false breakout” occurred, the next day saw a 7% crash; currently, there are many stop-loss orders concentrated in the 94,000-96,000 range, breaking this could trigger a “long squeeze” avalanche.
💣Hidden Risks:
- Large-scale issuance of stablecoins is not favorable and may serve as “ammunition” for shorting by speculators; the so-called “chip support” claims should be approached with caution to avoid becoming a bag holder.
💡Investment Reminder: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, beware of traps set by human control! Blindly chasing highs requires caution; position management is always the first rule. The market carries risks, enter with a clear mind!
(Note: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is influenced by policies and multiple market factors, and investment requires high caution.)#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 $BTC
【The Truth About Losses in the Crypto World: The Nine Fatal Pitfalls 99% of Investors Can't Escape】
🔥Why do you always seem to be "paying tuition" in the crypto world? These nine operational pitfalls are quietly devouring your principal:
1. Addiction to Chasing High Prices Do you get "high" when you see prices skyrocketing? Buying at high levels is often the starting point of a nightmare; remember: the frenzy after a surge may be a signal for the big players to exit.
2. Focus Loss in Value Judgment Buying hot coins just because others are without studying the fundamentals? Real opportunities are hidden in high-quality assets at "major buying points"; patiently wait for value to shine instead of chasing after gains.
3. Compulsive Trading from Itching Hands Knowing it’s not the right buying point but unable to control yourself? Trading is not about "getting a thrill"; discipline is more reliable than intuition, and haphazard operations will only amplify risks.
4. Emotional Attachment to Holdings Are you particularly fond of a certain coin? The market doesn’t recognize emotions, only signals; let go of your obsession and let buy/sell points dictate your decisions.
5. Avoidance of Review Cursing the market after losses but not reflecting? Mistakes are the best teachers; if you don’t summarize lessons, you’ll keep falling into the same pit.
6. Technical Nakedness Trap Placing orders based solely on "feelings"? Technical analysis is the "map" of the market; you need both mindset and technical skills to understand the language of trends.
7. Crisis of Strategic Vacuum Buying and selling based on "whatever happens"? Even the smallest funds need precise strategies; seizing opportunities is more reliable than relying on luck; experts never miss key points.
8. Panic-Induced Collapse Panicking and making rash decisions during a crash? Staying calm is the baseline for trading; blindly selling will only cement losses; rational responses are necessary to hold onto opportunities.
9. Luck-Driven Mindset Gambling on a "reversal in the next second"? The market specializes in treating all forms of defiance; luck is the enemy of profit; respecting risk allows for better survival.
💡Survival Rules in the Crypto World: High volatility ≠ high returns; counterproductive operations, strict discipline, and deep understanding are the keys to navigating bull and bear markets. Remember: in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money!
(Risk Disclaimer: Trading in virtual currencies carries extremely high risks; the above analysis is for reference only. Investments should be based on independent judgment and reasonable position control.)$BTC #特朗普就职百日
Having a capable assistant is crucial. While others are still confused and hesitant, you have seized the opportunity with this advantage, getting ahead of the game. Secure $BTC $ETH #特朗普就职百日
卓远日记
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4.30 Morning Thought Analysis Recently in high-level fluctuations, the shipping situation is approaching the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, a hammer candlestick and bullish engulfing pattern have emerged, which may promote a short-term rebound in shipping. As we approach the monthly K closing, there is a sense that the shipping situation hides uncertainties that require more attention. Pay attention to the 955 resistance level, and in the morning, focus on high volatility strategies while ensuring to set stop-losses and avoid counter-trend trading. Morning Operation Strategy - Short near 950-955 for Bitcoin, targeting around 935. If broken, further target 925. - Short near 1820-1850 for Ether, targeting around 1780; if broken, further target 1720. Personal advice is for reference only $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹
4.30 Morning Thought Analysis Recently in high-level fluctuations, the shipping situation is approaching the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, a hammer candlestick and bullish engulfing pattern have emerged, which may promote a short-term rebound in shipping. As we approach the monthly K closing, there is a sense that the shipping situation hides uncertainties that require more attention. Pay attention to the 955 resistance level, and in the morning, focus on high volatility strategies while ensuring to set stop-losses and avoid counter-trend trading. Morning Operation Strategy - Short near 950-955 for Bitcoin, targeting around 935. If broken, further target 925. - Short near 1820-1850 for Ether, targeting around 1780; if broken, further target 1720. Personal advice is for reference only $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹