#山寨币ETF展望 Altcoin ETF explosion! In 2025, will it be a harvesting machine or a wealth code?

The crypto circle has recently exploded! At the start of 2025, Wall Street institutions flocked like sharks smelling blood to submit altcoin ETF applications, from established public chains to quirky meme coins, even including a coin named after Trump. This unprecedented ETF frenzy raises the question: is it institutional money benefiting the market, or a new round of harvesting retail investors? Today, let's dig deeper.

1. Mainstream Altcoins: The SEC's favorites or outcasts?

1. SOL: Institutions are betting heavily, yet it is stuck on the classification as a security.

Solana (SOL) is known as the top player in the altcoin ETF space, with six institutions, including VanEck and Franklin Templeton, rushing to submit applications. This asset is referred to as the 'Ethereum killer' due to its ultra-fast transaction speeds and DeFi ecosystem, skyrocketing from $160 to $295 following last November's ETF news. However, it is awkward that the SEC has been tangled up in whether SOL is a security, even pulling VanEck and 21Shares' applications last August. Although the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins has shown a more lenient attitude since taking office, Bloomberg predicts a 70% chance of SOL's spot ETF approval, which may not arrive until the end of the year. #sol

2. XRP: Lawsuit settlement + cross-border payments, a comeback in sight?

XRP has been tormented by the SEC lawsuit for the past two years, but in 2025, the narrative suddenly changed: on April 11, the SEC unexpectedly reached a settlement with Ripple, reducing the fine to $50 million and not classifying XRP as a security! This directly ignited institutional enthusiasm, with ten institutions, including Bitwise and Grayscale, rushing to apply for spot ETFs, while ProShares' futures ETF was the first to get approved for listing on April 30. Bloomberg predicts an 85% chance of XRP's spot ETF approval, and CME plans to launch futures contracts on May 19 to pave the way. However, while Ripple's U.S. business has surged, the long-term outlook depends on whether the SEC will hold them accountable later.

3. LTC: An old PoW coin, stable as a rock?

Litecoin (LTC) is known as the 'honest man' among altcoins, using the same PoW mechanism as Bitcoin, which the SEC has long recognized as a commodity. Institutions like Nasdaq and Grayscale have been applying for spot ETFs, with Bloomberg predicting a 90% approval probability, possibly making it one of the first altcoin ETFs to be approved. However, its market cap is only $7.7 billion, and even if the ETF is approved, the capital inflow might only reach hundreds of millions to $1 billion, far less than Bitcoin ETF's hundreds of billions scale. #LTC

2. Meme Coin ETFs: Will Dogecoin take off, or will it cool down?

1. DOGE: Boosted by Musk, will retail investors rejoice?

Dogecoin (DOGE) has surged nearly 300 times in the past two years thanks to Musk's endorsements, and now even Grayscale is joining the fray to apply for an ETF. Rex Shares has even submitted a simplified process application, theoretically able to gain approval by early April. However, the SEC's classification of meme coins has always been vague; DOGE has no real application, and its price is entirely driven by sentiment. Bloomberg predicts a 75% chance of approval, and even if it passes, it may replicate the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' pattern—surging on news and plummeting afterward. #DOGE

2. TRUMP Coin and BONK: Political IP + strong backing, risk is off the charts!

Rex Shares submitted ETF applications for TRUMP Coin and BONK in January, aiming to combine political traffic with crypto. However, the compliance of TRUMP Coin is questionable, and the SEC may reject it directly as 'unregistered securities,' with only a 20% chance of approval. BONK, as a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has community hype but extremely poor liquidity, making it unattractive to institutions. These two coins are more like tools for capital to harvest retail investors; ordinary retail investors should avoid them.

3. Emerging Public Chains and Layer 1: Tech-savvy or just a fall guy?

1. AVAX and APT: Modular design + high performance, institutions are eyeing them!

Avalanche (AVAX) and Aptos (APT) are both high-performance Layer 1 solutions. VanEck submitted a spot ETF application for AVAX in April, with Bloomberg predicting a 75% approval chance, mainly due to its subnet architecture and enterprise partnerships. Bitwise's APT ETF targets the former Meta engineering team, but its price volatility is too high, and the SEC may require more market data before approval.

2. SUI and MOVE: Emerging public chains, a long road ahead.

Sui (SUI) and Move (MOVE) are younger Layer 1 solutions; although they have technical highlights, they lack a mature derivatives market and institutional liquidity. The probability of approval for the SUI ETF submitted by Canary Capital is only 50%, while the Move Network ETF may have to wait until 2026. These coins are more suitable for long-term investments, as short-term speculation carries extremely high risks.

4. Regulatory Storm and Market Reality: Don't just focus on the positives; the risks are equally deadly!

1. SEC Approval: Big noise but little rain?

Currently, there are 72 crypto ETF applications piled on the SEC's desk, but the actual chances of approval may be less than half. Although mainstream coins like SOL and XRP have many institutions applying, the SEC may require the removal of staking features (referencing the Ethereum ETF precedent) or reject them on grounds of market manipulation. Although the new chairman Paul Atkins has a friendly attitude, the approval process remains complex, and most ETFs may have to wait until the end of 2025 or even 2026 to be realized.

2. Market Differentiation: Is the narrative of altcoin ETFs losing its effectiveness?

During last November's altcoin ETF application wave, XRP and SOL briefly surged, but by April 2025, market sentiment had clearly cooled. Bitcoin fluctuated between $80,000 and $83,000, ETH struggled at $1,900, and SOL was even halved to $128. Institutional funds favored Bitcoin and Ethereum, and even if altcoin ETFs were approved, the capital inflow might be far below expectations.

3. Policy Risks: Exchange delisting + market washout.

Some security plan to delist a batch of altcoins on May 2 has already caused the mentioned coins to plummet by dozens of percent. This is just the tip of the iceberg; global regulatory attitudes toward altcoins are becoming increasingly strict, especially for meme coins and emerging projects lacking fundamentals. In the long run, most of the over 40 million altcoins will be eliminated, with only a few leading projects surviving.

5. Institutional Layout and Retail Strategy: How to seize opportunities and avoid traps?

1. Institutional Trends: BlackRock doesn't play with altcoins, but its influence is profound.

Although BlackRock hasn't directly applied for altcoin ETFs, its Bitcoin ETF continues to attract capital, indirectly boosting market confidence. Vanguard hasn't taken action, but its 2024 fund documents have hinted at possible adjustments to its crypto strategy. The movements of these giants are often more noteworthy than the altcoin ETFs themselves.

2. Retail Strategy: Four tips to master altcoin ETFs.

- Keep a close eye on the approval timeline: Focus on the final decisions for SOL and XRP spot ETFs (expected Q2-Q3 2025), as well as the progress of simplified processes for Litecoin and Dogecoin.

- Prioritize coins with clear commodity attributes: PoW mechanism LTC and cultural symbol DOGE may be approved first and carry lower risks.

- Beware of liquidity traps: Don't rush to chase high prices after an ETF is launched; observe the sustainability of capital inflows to avoid becoming the last buyer.

- Diversify investments, don't go all in: Keep altcoin ETF allocation within 10% of total holdings, leaving the rest for mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

6. Summary: Will 2025 be the inaugural year for altcoin ETFs or a moment of awakening?

The explosive applications for altcoin ETFs signify that the crypto market has entered a new phase of institutionalization. Approval chances for mainstream coins like SOL, XRP, and LTC are relatively high, potentially leading to short-term price fluctuations; meanwhile, meme coins and emerging projects are like slot machines in a casino—seemingly tempting but actually fraught with risks. Investors must remember: an ETF is not a guarantee against loss; regulatory policies, market sentiment, and project fundamentals are all essential. In this uncertain market, maintaining rationality and not being swept away by FOMO emotions is the key to survival.

Finally, a piece of advice: Altcoin ETFs could be a wealth code or a scythe, but never gamble with money you need for living expenses. The crypto market in 2025 is destined to be a thrilling rollercoaster—are you ready? $XRP $SOL $DOGE