$BTC The US side has actively contacted the Chinese side through various channels, hoping to negotiate on tariff issues. In fact, tariffs themselves are a means for the US to extort the interests of other countries through its global influence, ultimately the tariffs only increase symbolically or maintain the original tariff levels, while the benefits the US receives from various countries are significant, helping to reduce government deficits. Additionally, with the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its end, the US is certainly not losing out on the mineral resources it has gained from Ukraine. In fact, these are all positive signals. Affected by this, gold is declining.
Last night, the ADP PCE data was released, showing low employment numbers and a high personal consumption index, reflecting weakened corporate development and excessive inflation issues. These are all negative for the economy and the cryptocurrency market, with BTC dropping to 92900 but finding support at the middle band of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands, returning to oscillate within the 6-hour Bollinger Bands range. It seems the market is returning to a state of rallying to break new highs, but from the analysis of the weekly indicators, a wave of sell-off is inevitable. Currently, the capital main force has not sold off; it is hidden, and we are being monitored by big data. The current market trend is indeed torturous, but do not be overly anxious; it is more crucial to be cautious at this time.
Summary:
The US government's recent actions are leaning towards favorable for the market, while ADP and PCE are negative, so let’s look at tonight’s PMI and tomorrow’s major non-farm data.
Remember a signal: on April 7, the market rose from 74500 to a maximum of 95750, an increase of 29.86%, rising 22250 points. Today, May 1, the monthly cycle also needs a correction before the next rise.
If it just rises like this, the weekly MACD will certainly golden cross, creating a bull trend, but the probability is very low; still watching 89000-90500.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is on May 8, with 7 days to go, closely monitoring the 12-hour Bollinger Bands contraction pattern. If the market does not break the middle band in the last few days and the three lines are horizontal, it will not decline; the entire major trend will reverse to an upward trend. Breaking 96000. However, this situation still seems too early, the trend has not even begun to form.
Solid: Bearish on 89000-90500, but continue to operate within the 6-hour Bollinger Bands range for high shorts and low longs, using the 'short probing method' to enter the market, for secondary risk protection on trades.
