How did the tariff war trigger the U.S. economic recession in three months?
Due to the shipping time from China to the U.S. typically taking 20 to 40 days, this impact will gradually emerge from early to mid-May. Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, stated on April 29 to CNBC that cargo volume from Asia is expected to drop by about 35% year-on-year next week, primarily because several large U.S. retailers have suspended imports from China due to tariffs.
Gene Seroka pointed out that if the U.S.-China trade deadlock continues, cargo from China will continue to decrease, with about 25% of cargo ships expected to cancel their port calls in May. Cargo from China accounts for about 45% of the business at the Port of Los Angeles, and some logistics companies are currently trying to source goods from Southeast Asia to fill the capacity gap before heading to U.S. ports.
However, the Trump administration has also imposed hefty tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, leaving retailers with few options and no clear direction.
The Los Angeles County Economic Development Agency recently reported that Trump’s tariffs threaten $500 billion in local revenue and put the jobs of 2 million local workers at risk.
According to forecasts from Apollo Global Management, supply shortages leading to empty supermarket shelves and a slowdown in retail will emerge from late May to early June, accompanied by a wave of layoffs in the retail and logistics sectors.
