The U.S. economy has contracted for the first time since 2022 — driven by a surge in imports.
GDP fell by 0.3% on an annualized basis, with net exports subtracting nearly 5 percentage points from overall growth.
The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has suddenly surged to 71%, based on betting markets like Polymarket.
🃏 COVID flashbacks. While crypto and stocks are reacting with minor pullbacks for now — long-term, this could be bullish for risk-on assets.
Looks like Trump is getting what he wants by forcing an artificial recession through tariffs. The real question is: will it be enough to make the Fed pivot?
So far, the market isn’t pricing in a rate cut in May. But if it happens, we’ll witness a true «white swan» event.
🤫 All eyes now on Jerome Powell.
