$BTC Today - data on US GDP. Friday - US unemployment rate. The market is frozen, the big players are positioning from 95k. How is this related? 😈

Recession has been worrying expert minds since summer '24 and populists since spring '25. Signs of recession include unemployment above 5% and GDP growth slowing for more than two consecutive quarters. So, now it's clear.

Let's add inflation and the Fed rate here: if unemployment has risen again and GDP has slowed, then the economic slowdown is evident, most likely inflation did not rise in April, and a rate cut in June is probable.

But we have a new factor - from July they promise to lower taxes in the US, which will add uncertainty to the decision on the rate. What will Powell (the head of the Fed) risk: reputation or the economy? Banks in their reports have already removed expectations for a rate cut until 2026.

What does this mean for you crypto enthusiasts?

1. GDP ⬇️ + unemployment ⬆️ = closer to a rate cut, long squeeze assets and growth.

2. GDP ⬆️ + unemployment ⬇️ = the economy is strong, the rate will not be cut, assets bounce and a falling sideways trend.

3. What if GDP and unemployment fell or rose together? This is tension, liquidity will decrease, the decline will continue. This is what I expect.