vikanow1

Remember what happened to $BTC in October 2023? Everyone went short with 32k because they understood that the economy was in bad shape, there was nothing to grow on. The price flew to 36k, all the bloggers and investors sold bitcoins for 34-38k. And they switched to altcoins, saying that they had to exit in March 2024. Large marketing campaigns of you know what coins and platforms began.
By March, no one left the market, on the contrary, those who woke up brought money, because #btc set a peak, everyone hoped for a multiple increase in altcoins. But everything began to fall on the news of the sudden trial of #Ethereum
In early June, everyone hid and waited for a pump, but it was not there - sales of Mt. Gox and Germany, the Israel-Lebanon war — survived. Waited for the adoption of the ETF at #ETH and everything collapsed by 50%!
By autumn, the economic and geopolitical situation became even worse than last year.
But do you know what's in people's minds?
Now, after all this, absolutely EVERYONE believed in continued growth and a fabulous altseason. And of course, it will happen 🙃
#PEPE #SOL

$BTC Attention to all who believe in the power and independence of China from the USA: the Chinese holding Addentax Group Corp announced plans to purchase various tokens, #BTC and $TRUMP for a total of about $800,000,000, financed through the issuance of shares. Once again, into the Trump coins! It seems we have our first real meme coin, which serves as a trading exchange tool, a guarantor of trust between parties, and plans for a joint future solution to complex issues without war. Watch as ordinary people, acting in reality, outpace the rusted bureaucracy, unable to reconcile laws with the contradictions between the views of equally ordinary people. At the same time, there is no legislative basis in any of the countries for such radical moves, yet they are being made. Why are Chinese companies doing this? Because there are no other economic opportunities to emerge from a protracted crisis and correct their stock market, such a buyback and comeback in Chinese style, it turns out.

$BTC 3 bearish divergences: on the daily timeframe it has already formed, on the weekly and monthly it will appear if there is a new high ‼️
I have already mentioned that the chart requires either a sharp price drop or an increase in volume, and against the backdrop of agreements between the USA and China and others, the market has revived.
There is an influx into the market.
Two weeks of May have passed and the MACD on the monthly looks like this: if Bitcoin makes a new high, StochRSI currently indicates this, but MACD does not confirm it, then a bearish divergence appears. If the volumes are confirmed, it will be a full continuation of the rally, which I tend to agree with. After all, the law on stablecoins will be a driver for short-term growth before the rate drops.
A bearish divergence is forming on the weekly, but it may break due to inflows.
And on the daily chart - it is already there. Either there will be growth with high volatility and sharp falls, playing out these divergences, but without updating the lows. Or we will drop sharply by the beginning of June without any bounces.
Next time I will talk about the future decoupling of BTC and the dollar.
#TrumpTariffs

$BTC This week was very hot and started with the FED leaving the rate unchanged, and now we finally know why: Powell simply doesn't like Trump! 😂
Powell noted that tariffs can increase inflation and unemployment, how? All at once? The goal of tariffs is to make trade fair and move the production of the largest companies to the USA, which will create jobs, tax revenues, reduce logistics costs, and stop the leak of innovations. But if production is not moved to the USA and the tariffs remain cumbersome, then that's a problem.
Immediately after Powell's speech, Trump announced the lifting of restrictions on chips, and the rally took off.
The entire week was dedicated to deals, with India, with the UK, with China, and then deals with Middle Eastern countries.
Other news reflected the creation of conditions for the influx of new liquidity into the market, regulation, mass adoption: the stablecoin law, Trump's company launched its stablecoin, Black Rock met with the SEC.
That's all, I wish you successful trades, expect the release with technical analysis tomorrow.
#SaylorBTCPurchase

Tomorrow is the announcement of the FSR rate! $BTC and S&P500 are turning into low-volatility turtles, sprouting in gaps like mold.
At #bitcoin , there is a mini-gap from the top to 97.4k and from the bottom to 92k.
Today for the first time, the daily MACD column is red. However, a real short is possible after breaking the support at 92.8k. Until that moment — removal of long stops. After all, the week on MACD is strongly bending towards growth, showing the presence of a buyer. CryptoQuant reports on the continued accumulation of BTC by large holders, and Strategy is buying bitcoins, suggesting a huge demand ahead of the recession. And this is indeed the case — as a protective asset against a weak dollar.
The false breakout to 97 remains false for now.
And the local uptrend will not be broken until we fall below 85k; before that — a correction with a continuation of the run.
Tomorrow, the rate will not change, and everyone knows this, so the market will move from Powell's speech, while there is no fuel for the dollar and inflation to grow, the economy could be significantly cooled down. Knowing this, investors have already come up with a way out — they have purchased ETFs, and during the rise, they will sell off to buy back the depreciated dollar.

#FOMCMeeting

$BTC So, GDP reflects the accelerated contraction of the US economy, while the labor market is resilient to this; jobs are appearing, which means that inflation for April will either be lower or unchanged. What does this mean? Trump's methods are saving the economy, and that's a fact. This is a super signal for improving the investment climate when a point will be put on the contraction.
Meanwhile —
A wonderful calm in the market combined with modest data on outflows from gold and the stock market. Of course, the big players need time and slightly rising prices to exit. But will the impending short squeeze of ATN break this? There is a possibility of seeing a decoupling between the stock market and #BTC , considering that the former will be deflated within the framework of economic stabilization, while the latter will be invested in by governments.
But this is too messy, it seems to me that Trump will not go for such scheming. And then, he announced a budget cut of 23%, so why would they start buying cryptocurrency from this budget? A budget cut means a reduction in helicopter liquidity 🙃

$BTC Today - data on US GDP. Friday - US unemployment rate. The market is frozen, the big players are positioning from 95k. How is this related? 😈
Recession has been worrying expert minds since summer '24 and populists since spring '25. Signs of recession include unemployment above 5% and GDP growth slowing for more than two consecutive quarters. So, now it's clear.
Let's add inflation and the Fed rate here: if unemployment has risen again and GDP has slowed, then the economic slowdown is evident, most likely inflation did not rise in April, and a rate cut in June is probable.
But we have a new factor - from July they promise to lower taxes in the US, which will add uncertainty to the decision on the rate. What will Powell (the head of the Fed) risk: reputation or the economy? Banks in their reports have already removed expectations for a rate cut until 2026.
What does this mean for you crypto enthusiasts?
1. GDP ⬇️ + unemployment ⬆️ = closer to a rate cut, long squeeze assets and growth.
2. GDP ⬆️ + unemployment ⬇️ = the economy is strong, the rate will not be cut, assets bounce and a falling sideways trend.
3. What if GDP and unemployment fell or rose together? This is tension, liquidity will decrease, the decline will continue. This is what I expect.

$BTC So, what do you think about the market? This week marks a change of month, and so far we see bearish divergence on the monthly chart and seller pressure.
1. Week: quite positive — MACD is contracting, the price is approaching the level of 95k, last week we saw false breakouts above 95k. RSI shows the emergence of buyers, which is why the sad start of April has turned into positivity against the backdrop of global instability. Let me remind you that this is the average breakeven price for recent holders, they are on edge because there are currently no significant changes in favor of a bullish run.
2. Day: positive — opened above the value zone, three days were above 95k, but there was no close above the level, so we cannot consider this anything other than a false breakout with three bars, as MACD is gradually fading, and buyers are weakening according to RSI. 88.5k is the level; a daily candle closing below this will indicate the end of the upward trend.
3. Hourly charts show trading around the 95k level with rising peaks; pay attention to how we will approach the peak of 95.8k — a rapid approach to a drop, a consolidation, and small candles leading to a breakout and further movement towards 98.6k.

While Xi and Trump are shifting blame, $BTC continues its rebound against the backdrop of stabilizing instability, as India and Pakistan immediately engaged in a shootout. If you are reading this, you will notice that I understand both economics and geopolitics. And here’s the question - are the same ones behind Pakistan again? I remind you, both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, both suffer from high population density, have religious conflicts, and territorial disputes (Kashmir). I will say right away that unlike last summer with Lebanon and Israel, such news will push crypto up under the banner of "safe asset", but in reality, this will be a fluctuation with decreasing extremes. Most likely, it won't escalate into a serious conflict, as both countries lack the funds for large-scale conflicts. However, the airspace over India is now considered unsafe. This may not affect the U.S. stock market at all.
#BTC has reached the breakeven point of recent buyers — 95k, and is now testing their patience. Will they hold on?

#TariffPause #BTCvsMarkets

$BTC and S&P500 — have we noticed a decoupling? ♨️
While the stock market is experiencing outflows, #BTC is trying to consolidate at 88.5k: we are tiptoeing, chewing through resistance on the hourly charts. And the long positions that have stuck will be shaken off with a sharp move.
On the daily chart — the body is going past the 88.5k level, and a consolidation above will open the way to 89.5k, 91.2-91.9k.
It all looks as if everyone is shorting crypto in anticipation of a decline similar to that of the funds, and due to this, there is growth.
According to the RSI — someone is buying up. Attention, someone is actively selling to someone else; there haven't been hourly charts like this in a long time, after which they pull up sharply and distribute the sold volume to the retail investors at higher prices to cover the costs from the whale's sales.
Opinion: if the dollar falls, then inflation decreases, and all these scary tales of tariffs do not justify themselves, which means — 'Trump is right, and the Fed is short-sighted', thus a conflict between them lies ahead. This scares away investors, while crypto performs with optimism regarding a possible rate cut if the April inflation data comes even closer to the target value of 2%. And a decline in inflation with a high Fed rate is indeed an economic slowdown, decline, and recession. That’s why investors are exiting ;)

$BTC opened perfectly like in a textbook: a pullback to the 85k level with several daily bars, opening from 85k. Now it is also important to establish a position above this value, as it does not look like a false breakout.
1. MACD indicates two things: we will definitely be falling on the monthly and weekly charts, but we will definitely be making daily bounces.
2. On short time frames, it looks healthy to go to 85.8k and bounce back.
It will be interesting to observe the local resistance at 88.5k, from where in previous times there was a slide down like on a slope. Accumulation below it will open the way to 91.2k. Worse is another thing: the dollar is falling, everything else is falling with it, so if the U.S. stock market does not open upward, and there is a gap at the top for the S&P 500, then altcoins will cry cry against the relatively calm #BTC
#BTCRebound #TrumpVsPowell

Do not be afraid of retaliatory measures from China — the drop in oil prices does not concern them much, but the decline in their funds is disadvantageous, which, as you remember, they attempted to pump up twice — in October '24 and February '25.
The drop in oil prices is a problem for vassals; without them, China is simply a regional power.
China has a real problem — deflation and inefficiency in its economy; of course, tariffs force them to continue devaluing their yuan. But this is just a symptom; they need to negotiate with the USA more than anyone else, and even more urgently, they need renewal.
Europeans will not unite with China; it’s all a game of 'sell yourself for more.' Why won’t they unite? Because the European bureaucracy does not give opportunities even to local businessmen, let alone open their markets to China any more than they currently are. Moreover, who will China protect them from? Their own partners? Everything that is happening is the pain of restructuring the same systems under simpler conditions.
What about us crypto investors? We are in the perfect buying era; take what bankers talk about. In the fall of '24, I said not to buy, and now I say - I will take a closer look.

#DiversifyYourAssets

$BTC Reminder of our levels: 81.1, 79.9k (we'll get stuck), 76.6 (most likely we won't notice), 73.8 (bounce), 69k (slow return to 80k), on the worst day when Japan raises the rate - 49k.
Why is crypto more resilient than stocks? In March I wrote, and now they are already talking about the true goal of introducing their counter tariffs in the USA - to eliminate tariffs altogether, optimizing trade, reducing global inflation, reviving global economic growth. The old ones resist, but soon we will see positive results. However, I doubt that the market will turn around immediately. The markets need rest, the fund is getting rid of foreigners, locking in profits.
But what we see #BTC is not particularly falling:
1. it still doesn't belong to anyone, it's not for long
2. investors are reallocating their money into crypto
3. But what I assume: new trade relations without tariffs will be built, including on the basis of cryptocurrency payments. Because of this, we might see short-term pumps of "useful" projects, the folding of others, in general, the continuation of chaos.
4. And I also assume that the current drop will be like stretching a candy: sticky, occasionally sweet, and ending after dissolving 🤫

#BTCvsMarkets #BTCBelow80K

$BTC The current state of the market is a bounce. And look how nervous and twitchy it is, just like a futures trader. So, the decline due to tariffs has been playing out since February when they were announced. Before the 'Death cross' intersection, there is usually a decline and a bounce.
So what do we have now? On April 4, unemployment data is coming; if it's below 4.1%, then the rate will definitely not be lowered in May, if it's higher, then there are some (few) chances.
To avoid guessing, let's assess the available data: American incomes have increased, while spending and consumer sentiment are declining, hiring is being reduced, oil production is increasing, gold as a protective asset is rapidly rising, and investors are leaving.
Honestly, it looks super for a crash and reset:
1. spending less, lower inflation, closer to a Fed rate cut;
2. producing more oil, regulating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar and oil indices are decreasing, prices are falling, and the Fed rate can be lowered;
3. illegal immigrants are being taken away, hiring is reduced, unemployment is above 4%, below 5%, the Fed rate can be lowered.
4. tariffs are being introduced, investors are leaving, local producers are twitching, stocks are falling, which means the Fed rate can be lowered, and they will rush for loans to optimize production.
#TrumpTariffs

$BTC And so a promising week rolls down, and the worst will begin after 81.1k (the low of last week). Of course, many see the path down to 70k: tariffs, the need to deflate the bubble, reducing inflation, and bringing prices back to reality.
Moreover, the US government is not particularly eager to buy at such prices; it’s clear that the US will acquire discreetly, secretly, and NOT during a period of decreasing inflation.
The MACD on the weekly chart shows bearish signals, and the RSI indicates a weak buyer, even though we do not see any buybacks on the chart. Two daily candles cover the weekly growth.
The close of the week is important; if it doesn't update 81.1k and returns to 85 with a solid hold, we can expect a small bounce. The S&P 500 has a gap down to 5553, the CME closed at 84k, what gap will there be at #bitcoin ?
#MarketPullback

$BTC "Death Cross" — and here we see a similar picture again, which was observed in August '24 on the weekly timeframe. The EMA crossover on the daily timeframe occurred back in February.
What should be remembered about this cross? Before the actual crossover, there is usually a drop with a new low, followed by a rebound, and then the two lines intersect. After that, we look at other indicators — whether a new rally will begin or if the trend will change.
If we dive deeper into technical analysis, then:
Week: according to Bollinger Bands, we have been on the lower band for the third week, accumulating, and not breaking through;
MACD indicates at best a sideways movement with new lows, and at worst a bearish trend.
Day: according to Bollinger Bands, if we settle below 84.5k, we will go down to 79.9k.
MACD and RSI indicate the presence of buyers in this zone; to maintain bullish trends, we need to close above 86.2k.
#DeathCross #TrumpTariffs

$BTC Have you noticed how this time CNN and BBC are not reporting that the markets are falling due to Israel's initiative to resume fire on Gaza (as it was in the summer during Hezbollah's activity)?
How calmly they talk about Israel's ultimatum "we will annex the occupied land of Gaza if you do not return the hostages"?
Isn't it strange that this coincides with the cessation of funding for leftist media? It seems that if they don't get money, they don't want to scream about the children and victims of Gaza, about "Israeli militarism" for free!
In this easy way, the sincere views of all these broadcasters have become clear. Soon, the ardent supporters of the Democrats will be shocked at how their former opinion leaders will change their opinions to those for which they will be paid a regular salary.
And the market is unrelated, it is barely breathing. CryptoQuant is completely confused, every hour they are either "bullish" or in a bearish cycle for a year. You know, I have started writing here rarely, switching to my blog on YouTube, but the main reason is the inconsistency and dryness in the market, which is labeled differently every hour.
I wrote about the recession in September, you laughed — the market was rising, Buffett was exiting banks. Trump spoke about the recession when there was little to laugh about.
#TrumpAtDAS

$BTC 19.03 ON WEDNESDAY an important day for all markets: the decision on rates in Japan and the USA. If Japan raises rates again, markets will fall, as they did in early August '24 and late January '25. The Japanese promise not to touch them this time. The USA is likely to leave things as they are. In the case of such a calm, markets will be determined by the rhetoric of the head of the Fed. He has already warned that the decision will be based on the consequences of Trump's tariffs, as they can both drive inflation and slow it down:
1. Tariffs increase inflation if rising prices do not reduce purchasing activity. Prices for goods rise, people buy, and production is still at old prices, company profits increase, stocks rise, and crypto too.
2. Tariffs decrease inflation if rising prices deter customers, as people have no savings, credit lines are exhausted, they choose cheaper goods, postpone purchases, sellers lower prices for competitiveness, cutting costs, laying off people, unemployment rises, unemployed spend less, sell assets, company stocks fall, bankruptcies occur.
The consequences can only be assessed in April, and they depend on what stage this economic cycle is in.
#TONRally $TON

Inflation has decreased, USD is falling. Will the US Federal Reserve lower the rate on March 19? 😇
Yes — if:
1. Tariffs will reduce inflation by lowering prices for local producers' goods. Experts say that a recession isn't bad; the markets are inflated by an abnormal injection of money due to the pandemic, and then by Biden and the military-industrial complex; they need to be deflated to complete the cycle and form the bottom of a new one.
2. If the USD index falls to 95-98.
3. If the markets have sufficiently cooled down, according to the Federal Reserve. There could be another 30% drop, yes, you heard that right.
4. If OPEC increases oil production starting in April.
5. If Japan skips raising rates during this period.
No — if:
1. The mood and ability to "buy" remain among the masses.
2. If aid to warring countries is resumed.
3. Low rate of USD decline.
4. A black swan event and rising oil prices (Iran).

Regarding tariffs: according to Trump's plan, US partners will remove their tariffs, and the US will remove its own, which will lead to lower prices in most of the world, cool inflation, and stimulate consumption. So far, partners are escalating, while in some EU countries there is already a recession, but the leftists do not want to eliminate bureaucracy and inefficiency because the EU will plunge into chaos as soon as social programs are cut.
$BTC #CryptoCPIWatch

$BTC «shaking out—shook out» the season has begun 💓 The unemployment data release on Friday will be overshadowed by the crypto summit, where the mantra "the reserve is almost ready" will be repeated, coins will be listed, and the SEC will be accused of a corrupt approach.
As a result: the unemployment expectation is 4.1%, there are tens of thousands laid off due to the reduction of leftist programs; but illegal immigrants have also been expelled, and the rate of USD decline is low enough to consider that inflation is decreasing, so unemployment below 4.1% will be perceived negatively, while the summit helps big players meet expectations.
It turns out: summit + ⬆️ unemployment — the growth will continue.
summit + ⬇️ unemployment — break.
Additionally — tariffs from 04.03 may be canceled/moved, and statements about the "reserve" created long liquidity;
Furthermore — meetings in China on stimulus measures, we already saw this in October '24, the forecasts were justified.
Altcoin — moderate rebound, if inflation, stimulated by Christmas and elections, calms down, and the rate reduction could happen by summer. The broken support levels have become mirror levels, I wrote about this in February. I hope you read about altcoins, and it helped you preserve your money in futures last week.
Tomorrow there will be a technical review 💸 #USCryptoReserve $ADA $SOL