IS THE 4-YEAR CYCLE DEAD, OR IS IT ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITY?

The traditional 4-year crypto cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings looks like it is becoming irrelevant.

Historically, the cycle included:

👉 Bear market

👉 Accumulation phase

👉 Bull market

👉 Euphoria phase

This Cycle is Different

- One year post-halving, no clear bull market has emerged.

- Bitcoin has risen, but altcoins have lagged significantly.

- The rise is driven by institutional money and ETFs, which don’t impact altcoins like retail flows did in the past.

Liquidity is the real play

- The key factor now is liquidity, not time-based cycles.

- Global liquidity is surging, hitting all-time highs (ATHs).

- $5.5 billion added this year alone; projected $12B total for the year (~10% increase).

What am I expecting?

- This liquidity needs to flow, and Bitcoin and crypto are top destinations.

- Historically, Bitcoin price follows global liquidity (M2) with a 10–12 week lag

- If liquidity continues rising, expect strong market impacts, regardless of outdated cycle models.