Tonight, the United States will release GDP and PCE data, two major indicators that attract significant attention. PCE, as the core measure of inflation observed by the Federal Reserve, is widely expected not to trigger severe fluctuations, as the market has fully digested its trends.
In contrast, the GDP data carries more weight. As a lagging indicator, GDP's influence is limited. Even if the data falls short of expectations, the market may have already braced for it, making it hard to stir waves.
Conversely, weak GDP may suggest an economic slowdown, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. This logic is similar to when the unemployment rate rises in 2024, as the market anticipates a higher unemployment rate in exchange for a more accommodative monetary policy, thus benefiting risk assets.