📌 Background and reasons for delayed approvals
1. Market volatility and regulatory caution
Since December 2024, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant fluctuations. The price of Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by over 53%, dropping below $1,900, while Bitcoin (BTC) has also retreated from a January high of $108,000 to about $79,000. In such a market environment, the SEC chose to delay approvals to avoid introducing new variables while the market has yet to stabilize.
2. Compliance and legal disputes
The SEC remains cautious about the legal status of crypto assets. Although Ripple Labs achieved some victories in its 2023 lawsuit with the SEC, with the court ruling that XRP does not constitute a security in secondary market transactions, compliance with financial institutions still needs further clarification. Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin also face similar issues, and their degree of decentralization, market manipulation risks, and integration capabilities with the traditional financial system are all key points of SEC evaluation.
3. Policy environment and regulatory changes
The Trump administration's recent push for a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' plan clearly regards Bitcoin as a 'special asset,' but its stance on other cryptocurrencies like XRP and Solana remains unclear. This policy tendency may prompt the SEC to be more cautious when approving non-Bitcoin ETFs to avoid conflicts with national strategy.
📉 Market reactions and impacts
After the SEC's delayed decision announcement, the cryptocurrency market reacted quickly. On March 11, the price of XRP fell by about 10%, Dogecoin dropped over 12%, and Solana and Litecoin also experienced varying degrees of decline. The price of Bitcoin hovered around $79,000, showing relative stability.
However, market sentiment is not entirely pessimistic. Analysts point out that the SEC has delayed the approval process for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs multiple times, yet ultimately approved related products. With the improvement of the market environment in the second half of 2025, such as possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or the Trump administration's clear pro-crypto policies, the probability of approving related ETFs will significantly increase.
🔮 Future outlook and investor concerns
1. Approval processes and timelines
According to the SEC's public process, once an exchange submits a 19b-4 rule change application, the SEC has a maximum review period of 240 days. During this period, the SEC typically provides feedback in stages and may delay multiple times until a final decision is made.
2. Policy tendencies of the new SEC chairman
Current chairman Gary Gensler is controversial due to his tough regulatory stance, while the Trump administration has promised to appoint a more crypto-friendly successor in 2025. If the new chairman promotes regulatory easing after taking office, the ETF approval process may accelerate.
3. Investor strategy adjustments
Some investors have begun to adjust their strategies. For example, U.S. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene recently increased her holdings in Bitcoin ETF shares, showing confidence in long-term trends. Meanwhile, investors should pay attention to the SEC's first formal response, whether the applying institutions adjust custody plans to meet regulatory requirements, and the progress of securities litigation involving Solana and XRP, as these will directly impact their ETF prospects.
